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Differential adaptation strategies by agro-ecological zones in African livestock management

Author

Listed:
  • Seo, S. Niggol
  • Mendelsohn, Robert
  • Dinar, Ariel
  • Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep

Abstract

This paper examines how farmers have adapted their livestock operation to the current climate in each agro-ecological zone in Africa. The authors examine how climate has affected the farmer's choice to raise livestock or not and the choice of animal species. To measure adaptation, the analysis regresses the farmer's choice on climate, soil, water flow, and socio-economic variables. The findings show that climate does in fact affect the farmer's decision about whether to raise livestock and the species. The paper also simulates how future climates may alter these decisions using forecasts from climate models and the estimated model. With a hot dry scenario, livestock ownership will increase slightly across all of Africa, but especially in West Africa and high elevation agro-ecological zones. Dairy cattle will decrease in semi-arid regions, sheep will increase in the lowlands, and chickens will increase at high elevations. With a mild and wet scenario, however, livestock adoption will fall dramatically in lowland and high latitude moist agro-ecological zones. Beef cattle will increase and sheep will fall in dry zones, dairy cattle will fall precipitously and goats will rise in moist zones, and chickens will increase at high elevations but fall at mid elevations. Livestock adaptations depend on the climate scenario and will vary across the landscape. Agro-ecological zones are a useful way to capture how these changes differ from place to place.

Suggested Citation

  • Seo, S. Niggol & Mendelsohn, Robert & Dinar, Ariel & Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep, 2008. "Differential adaptation strategies by agro-ecological zones in African livestock management," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4601, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4601
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fafchamps, Marcel & Udry, Christopher & Czukas, Katherine, 1998. "Drought and saving in West Africa: are livestock a buffer stock?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 273-305, April.
    2. Mendelsohn, Robert & Dinar, Ariel & Sanghi, Apurva, 2001. "The effect of development on the climate sensitivity of agriculture," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(01), pages 85-101, February.
    3. Delgado, Christopher L. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Steinfeld, Henning & Ehui, Simeon K. & Courbois, Claude, 1999. "Livestock to 2020: the next food revolution," 2020 vision briefs 61, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
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    5. Barry Smit & Ian Burton & Richard Klein & J. Wandel, 2000. "An Anatomy of Adaptation to Climate Change and Variability," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 223-251, April.
    6. Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep & Mendelsohn, Robert, 2007. "Endogenous irrigation : the impact of climate change on farmers in Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4278, The World Bank.
    7. Train,Kenneth E., 2009. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521747387.
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    Cited by:

    1. Isaure Delaporte & Mathilde Maurel, 2018. "Adaptation to climate change in Bangladesh," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 49-62, January.
    2. Kabubo-Mariara, Jane, 2009. "Global warming and livestock husbandry in Kenya: Impacts and adaptations," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(7), pages 1915-1924, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Livestock&Animal Husbandry; Wildlife Resources; Peri-Urban Communities; Rural Urban Linkages; Dairies&Dairying;

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