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A ricardian analysis of the impact of climate change on African cropland

Author

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  • Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep
  • Mendelsohn, Robert

Abstract

This study examines the impact of climate change on cropland in Africa. It is based on a survey of more than 9,000 farmers in 11 countries: Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Niger, Senegal, South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. The study uses a Ricardian cross-sectional approach in which net revenue is regressed on climate, water flow, soil, and economic variables. The results show that net revenues fall as precipitation falls or as temperatures warm across all the surveyed farms. In addition to examining all farms together, the study examined dryland and irrigated farms separately. Dryland farms areespecially climate sensitive. Irrigated farms have a positive immediate response to warming because they are located in relatively cool parts of Africa. The study also examined some simple climate scenarios to see how Africa would respond to climate change. These uniform scenarios assume that only one aspect of climate changes and the change is uniform across all of Africa. In addition, the study examined three climate change scenarios from Atmospheric Oceanic General Circulation Models. These scenarios predicted changes in climate in each country over time. Not all countries are equally vulnerable to climate change. First, the climate scenarios predict different temperature and precipitation changes in each country. Second, it is also important whether a country is already hot and dry. Third, the extent to which farms are irrigated is also important.

Suggested Citation

  • Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep & Mendelsohn, Robert, 2007. "A ricardian analysis of the impact of climate change on African cropland," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4305, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4305
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter K. Schott, 2004. "Across-Product Versus Within-Product Specialization in International Trade," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 119(2), pages 647-678.
    2. Kimura, Fukunari & Takahashi, Yuya & Hayakawa, Kazunobu, 2007. "Fragmentation and parts and components trade: Comparison between East Asia and Europe," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 23-40, February.
    3. Kokko, Ari, 2002. "Export-Led Growth in East Asia: Lessons for Europe's Transition Economies," EIJS Working Paper Series 142, Stockholm School of Economics, The European Institute of Japanese Studies.
    4. Athukorala, Prema-chandra & Yamashita, Nobuaki, 2006. "Production fragmentation and trade integration: East Asia in a global context," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 233-256, December.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate Change; Environmental Economics&Policies; Global Environment Facility; Common Property Resource Development; Crops&Crop Management Systems;

    JEL classification:

    • Q12 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets
    • Q25 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Water

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