IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/ajarec/v54y2010i2p239-258.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Managing forests, livestock, and crops under global warming: a micro-econometric analysis of land use changes in Africa

Author

Listed:
  • S. Niggol Seo

Abstract

This paper examines potential land use changes in Africa under climate change by building an integrated model of crop management, animal husbandry, and forestry. Using micro-level decisions from around 9000 household surveys in 11 countries, we analyze the choice of land types across the landscape with a multinomial discrete choice model. The choices and future adaptation measures are analyzed as a mosaic based on the typology of Agro-Ecological Zones. The results indicate that if climate becomes hotter and drier, Africa will adapt by increasing a joint production of crops and animals, especially in the lowland savannahs. On the other hand, if climate becomes wetter, it will switch more to forests, either with crops or with both crops and livestock, especially in the mid and high elevation humid zones. Forestry will play a significant role in adaptation when a substantial increase in precipitation makes animal husbandry an unattractive alternative. Copyright 2010 The Author. Journal compilation 2010 Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society Inc. and Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • S. Niggol Seo, 2010. "Managing forests, livestock, and crops under global warming: a micro-econometric analysis of land use changes in Africa ," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 54(2), pages 239-258, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ajarec:v:54:y:2010:i:2:p:239-258
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1467-8489.2010.00487.x
    File Function: link to full text
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kym Anderson & William A. Masters, 2009. "Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Africa," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2607, December.
    2. Kym Anderson, 2009. "Distortions to Agricultural Versus Nonagricultural Producer Incentives," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 55-74, September.
    3. Anderson, Kym, 2009. "Five Decades of Distortions to Agricultural Incentives," Agricultural Distortions Working Paper Series 48742, World Bank.
    4. Pradeep Kurukulasuriya & Robert Mendelsohn & Rashid Hassan & James Benhin & Temesgen Deressa & Mbaye Diop & Helmy Mohamed Eid & K. Yerfi Fosu & Glwadys Gbetibouo & Suman Jain & Ali Mahamadou & Renneth, 2006. "Will African Agriculture Survive Climate Change?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 20(3), pages 367-388.
    5. Mendelsohn, Robert & Nordhaus, William D & Shaw, Daigee, 1994. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 753-771, September.
    6. Wolfram Schlenker & W. Michael Hanemann & Anthony C. Fisher, 2005. "Will U.S. Agriculture Really Benefit from Global Warming? Accounting for Irrigation in the Hedonic Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 395-406, March.
    7. Olivier Deschênes & Michael Greenstone, 2007. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 354-385, March.
    8. Train,Kenneth E., 2009. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521747387.
    9. Seo S. Niggol & Mendelsohn Robert & Dinar Ariel & Kurukulasuriya Pradeep, 2009. "Adapting to Climate Change Mosaically: An Analysis of African Livestock Management by Agro-Ecological Zones," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 9(2), pages 1-37, March.
    10. Kym Anderson & Will Martin, 2009. "Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Asia," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2611, December.
    11. S. Niggol Seo & Robert Mendelsohn, 2008. "Measuring impacts and adaptations to climate change: a structural Ricardian model of African livestock management-super-1," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 38(2), pages 151-165, March.
    12. Sohngen, Brent & Mendelsohn, Robert, 1998. "Valuing the Impact of Large-Scale Ecological Change in a Market: The Effect of Climate Change on U.S. Timber," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(4), pages 686-710, September.
    13. Nin, Alejandro & Ehui, Simeon & Benin, Samuel, 2007. "Livestock Productivity in Developing Countries: An Assessment," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, in: Robert Evenson & Prabhu Pingali (ed.), Handbook of Agricultural Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 47, pages 2461-2532, Elsevier.
    14. Anderson, Kym & Swinnen, Johan F.M., 2009. "Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Eastern Europe and Central Asia," Agricultural Distortions Working Paper Series 48624, World Bank.
    15. Vedeld, Paul & Angelsen, Arild & Bojo, Jan & Sjaastad, Espen & Kobugabe Berg, Gertrude, 2007. "Forest environmental incomes and the rural poor," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(7), pages 869-879, April.
    16. Kym Anderson, 2009. "Distortions to Agricultural Incentives : A Global Perspective, 1955-2007," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 9436, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. McCarl, Bruce A. & Attavanich, Witsanu & Musumba, Mark & Mu, Jianhong E. & Aisabokhae, Ruth, 2011. "Land Use and Climate Change," MPRA Paper 83993, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2014.
    2. Otieno, Jackson & Muchapondwa, Edwin & Ntuli, Herbert, 2023. "The odds of South African agriculture using wildlife ranching to adapt to climate change," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 18(1), May.
    3. Seo, S. Niggol, 2011. "An analysis of public adaptation to climate change using agricultural water schemes in South America," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(4), pages 825-834, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. S. Niggol Seo, 2011. "The impacts of climate change on Australia and New Zealand: a Gross Cell Product analysis by land cover," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 55(2), pages 220-238, April.
    2. Tangermann, Stefan, 2011. "Risk Management in Agriculture and the Future of the EU's Common Agricultural Policy," National Policies, Trade and Sustainable Development 320171, International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development (ICTSD).
    3. B Kelsey Jack, "undated". "Market Inefficiencies and the Adoption of Agricultural Technologies in Developing Countries," CID Working Papers 50, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    4. Johan Swinnen & Alessandro Olper & Senne Vandevelde, 2021. "From unfair prices to unfair trading practices: Political economy, value chains and 21st century agri‐food policy," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(5), pages 771-788, September.
    5. Kamel Louhichi & Aymeric Ricome & Sergio Gomez y Paloma, 2022. "Impacts of agricultural taxation in Sub‐Saharan Africa: Insights from agricultural produce cess in Tanzania," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 53(5), pages 671-686, September.
    6. Kym Anderson & Ernesto Valenzuela, 2021. "What impact are subsidies and trade barriers abroad having on Australasian and Brazilian agriculture?," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 65(2), pages 265-290, April.
    7. Magrini, Emiliano & Morales-Opazo, Cristian & Balie, Jean, 2014. "Supply response along the value chain in selected SSA countries: the case of grains," 2014: Food, Resources and Conflict, December 7-9, 2014. San Diego, California 197193, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    8. Johnson, Michael & Dorosh, Paul, 2015. "Optimal Tariffs with Smuggling: A Spatial Analysis of Nigerian Rice Policy Options," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211816, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    9. Calum Brown & Dave Murray-Rust & Jasper van Vliet & Shah Jamal Alam & Peter H Verburg & Mark D Rounsevell, 2014. "Experiments in Globalisation, Food Security and Land Use Decision Making," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(12), pages 1-24, December.
    10. Garrone, Maria & Emmers, Dorien & Olper, Alessandro & Swinnen, Johan, 2019. "Jobs and agricultural policy: Impact of the common agricultural policy on EU agricultural employment," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 1-1.
    11. Kym Anderson, 2021. "Food policy in a more volatile climate and trade environment," Departmental Working Papers 2021-25, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    12. Poczta-Wajda, Agnieszka, 2014. "Assistance To Agriculture In Countries Of A Different Development Level And Trends In World Trade With Agricultural Products," Roczniki (Annals), Polish Association of Agricultural Economists and Agribusiness - Stowarzyszenie Ekonomistow Rolnictwa e Agrobiznesu (SERiA), vol. 2014(6).
    13. Johanna L. Croser & Peter J. Lloyd & Kym Anderson, 2010. "How Do Agricultural Policy Restrictions on Global Trade and Welfare Differ Across Commodities?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 92(3), pages 698-712.
    14. Derek D. Headey, 2016. "The evolution of global farming land: facts and interpretations," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 47(S1), pages 185-196, November.
    15. Kym Anderson & Gordon Rausser & Johan Swinnen, 2013. "Political Economy of Public Policies: Insights from Distortions to Agricultural and Food Markets," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(2), pages 423-477, June.
    16. Kym Anderson & Sundar Ponnusamy, 2019. "Structural Transformation to Manufacturing and Services: What Role for Trade?," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 36(2), pages 32-71, September.
    17. Kym Anderson & Ernesto Valenzuela, 2011. "Agricultural Policy as a Barrier to Global Economic Integration," Chapters, in: Miroslav N. Jovanović (ed.), International Handbook on the Economics of Integration, Volume III, chapter 11, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    18. Giulia Meloni & Jo Swinnen, 2016. "Bugs, tariffs and colonies: the political economy of the wine trade 1860-1970," Working Papers of Department of Economics, Leuven 556191, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), Department of Economics, Leuven.
    19. Mockshell, Jonathan & Birner, Regina, 2015. "Donors and domestic policy makers: Two worlds in agricultural policy-making?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 1-14.
    20. Schwerhoff, Gregor & Wehkamp, Johanna, 2018. "Export tariffs combined with public investments as a forest conservation policy instrument," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 69-84.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:ajarec:v:54:y:2010:i:2:p:239-258. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaresea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.