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Managing forests, livestock, and crops under global warming: a micro-econometric analysis of land use changes in Africa

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  • S. Niggol Seo

Abstract

This paper examines potential land use changes in Africa under climate change by building an integrated model of crop management, animal husbandry, and forestry. Using micro-level decisions from around 9000 household surveys in 11 countries, we analyze the choice of land types across the landscape with a multinomial discrete choice model. The choices and future adaptation measures are analyzed as a mosaic based on the typology of Agro-Ecological Zones. The results indicate that if climate becomes hotter and drier, Africa will adapt by increasing a joint production of crops and animals, especially in the lowland savannahs. On the other hand, if climate becomes wetter, it will switch more to forests, either with crops or with both crops and livestock, especially in the mid and high elevation humid zones. Forestry will play a significant role in adaptation when a substantial increase in precipitation makes animal husbandry an unattractive alternative. Copyright 2010 The Author. Journal compilation 2010 Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society Inc. and Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

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  • S. Niggol Seo, 2010. "Managing forests, livestock, and crops under global warming: a micro-econometric analysis of land use changes in Africa ," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 54(2), pages 239-258, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ajarec:v:54:y:2010:i:2:p:239-258
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1467-8489.2010.00487.x
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    1. William A. Masters & Kym Anderson, 2009. "Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Africa," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2607.
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    2. Seo, S. Niggol, 2011. "An analysis of public adaptation to climate change using agricultural water schemes in South America," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(4), pages 825-834, February.
    3. McCarl, Bruce A. & Attavanich, Witsanu & Musumba, Mark & Mu, Jianhong E. & Aisabokhae, Ruth, 2011. "Land Use and Climate Change," MPRA Paper 83993, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2014.

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