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Optimal tariffs with smuggling: A spatial analysis of Nigerian rice policy options

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  • Johnson, Michael E.
  • Dorosh, Paul A.

Abstract

Utilizing a spatial multi-market model for rice in Nigeria that explicitly takes into account the potential for smuggling, in this paper we analyze the welfare implications of alternative rice tariff rates given the government’s goals of spurring domestic production and reducing imports. Because smuggling occurs through the diversion of imports from Lagos, the official port of entry in the south, to the north, our modeling framework also captures the spatial effects of higher tariffs on changes in rural and urban prices, production and consumption, the flow of trade in rice, and welfare across different parts of the country. Results show that tariff rates that exceed about 40 percent introduce some smuggling of rice through the north when smuggling becomes more profitable than importing through official channels in the south. It is also at this tipping point that government tariff revenues are maximized. At higher tariff rates with smuggling, the south experiences greater welfare losses, especially in urban areas.

Suggested Citation

  • Johnson, Michael E. & Dorosh, Paul A., 2015. "Optimal tariffs with smuggling: A spatial analysis of Nigerian rice policy options," NSSP working papers 29, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    • Handle: RePEc:fpr:nsspwp:29
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    File URL: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/149935
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    Cited by:

    1. Onyeneke , Robert Ugochukwu & Emenekwe, Chukwuemeka Chinonso & Amadi, Mark Umunna & Munonye, Jane Onuabuchi & Njoku, Chukwudi Loveday & Izuogu, Chibuzo Uzoma, 2020. "Demand Analysis of Rice in Nigeria: Application of Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System Model," Asian Journal of Agriculture and Rural Development, Asian Economic and Social Society (AESS), vol. 10(01), January.
    2. Patrick L. Hatzenbuehler & Philip C. Abbott & Tahirou Abdoulaye, 2017. "Price Transmission in Nigerian Food Security Crop Markets," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(1), pages 143-163, February.
    3. Robert Ugochukwu Onyeneke & Chukwuemeka Chinonso Emenekwe & Mark Umunna Amadi & Jane Onuabuchi Munonye & Chukwudi Loveday Njoku & Chibuzo Uzoma Izuogua, 2020. "Demand analysis of rice in Nigeria: application of quadratic almost ideal demand system model," Asian Journal of Agriculture and rural Development, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 10(1), pages 364-378, June.
    4. Amolegbe, Khadijat B. & Upton, Joanna & Bageant, Elizabeth & Blom, Sylvia, 2021. "Food price volatility and household food security: Evidence from Nigeria," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).

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