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Impacts of Climate Change on Livestock Location in the US: A Statistical Analysis

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  • Minglu Wang

    (School of Public Finance and Taxation, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Chengdu 611130, China)

  • Bruce A. McCarl

    (Department of Agricultural Economics, Texas A&M University, 2124 TAMU, 600 John Kimbrough Blvd, College Station, TX 77843, USA)

Abstract

Livestock production is a valuable part of US agriculture as it contributes 50% of total agricultural value. Climate change is likely a threat to livestock production, but research regarding the impact of climate change on livestock sectors is limited. This paper examines how climate change affects livestock mix and location. Specifically, we examine climate effects on grazing animals and, in particular, on beef cattle, dairy cattle, goats, and sheep. We examine this in the US based on county-level data by using fractional multinomial logit econometrics. Our results show that climate is an influential determinant of where livestock herds are located and species mix. The impacts of climate vary by species and region. We also find significant influences from geographic characteristics and animal product prices. Subsequently, we project how climate change would influence future livestock mix and location. It reveals a likely growth in beef cow land shares across most of the US with the largest gains in the northwest. We also find substitutions between species as climate change progresses with dairy cows exhibiting the largest reduction.

Suggested Citation

  • Minglu Wang & Bruce A. McCarl, 2021. "Impacts of Climate Change on Livestock Location in the US: A Statistical Analysis," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-20, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:10:y:2021:i:11:p:1260-:d:681978
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Cheng, Muxi & McCarl, Bruce A. & Fei, Chengcheng, 2022. "Impact of Climate Change on the U.S. Livestock Sector," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322255, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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