IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jlands/v10y2021i11p1260-d681978.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impacts of Climate Change on Livestock Location in the US: A Statistical Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Minglu Wang

    (School of Public Finance and Taxation, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Chengdu 611130, China)

  • Bruce A. McCarl

    (Department of Agricultural Economics, Texas A&M University, 2124 TAMU, 600 John Kimbrough Blvd, College Station, TX 77843, USA)

Abstract

Livestock production is a valuable part of US agriculture as it contributes 50% of total agricultural value. Climate change is likely a threat to livestock production, but research regarding the impact of climate change on livestock sectors is limited. This paper examines how climate change affects livestock mix and location. Specifically, we examine climate effects on grazing animals and, in particular, on beef cattle, dairy cattle, goats, and sheep. We examine this in the US based on county-level data by using fractional multinomial logit econometrics. Our results show that climate is an influential determinant of where livestock herds are located and species mix. The impacts of climate vary by species and region. We also find significant influences from geographic characteristics and animal product prices. Subsequently, we project how climate change would influence future livestock mix and location. It reveals a likely growth in beef cow land shares across most of the US with the largest gains in the northwest. We also find substitutions between species as climate change progresses with dairy cows exhibiting the largest reduction.

Suggested Citation

  • Minglu Wang & Bruce A. McCarl, 2021. "Impacts of Climate Change on Livestock Location in the US: A Statistical Analysis," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-20, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:10:y:2021:i:11:p:1260-:d:681978
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/10/11/1260/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/10/11/1260/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anthony C. Fisher & W. Michael Hanemann & Michael J. Roberts & Wolfram Schlenker, 2012. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(7), pages 3749-3760, December.
    2. Wolfram Schlenker & W. Michael Hanemann & Anthony C. Fisher, 2006. "The Impact of Global Warming on U.S. Agriculture: An Econometric Analysis of Optimal Growing Conditions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(1), pages 113-125, February.
    3. Mendelsohn, Robert & Nordhaus, William D & Shaw, Daigee, 1994. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 753-771, September.
    4. Esmeralda A. Ramalho & Joaquim J.S. Ramalho & José M.R. Murteira, 2011. "Alternative Estimating And Testing Empirical Strategies For Fractional Regression Models," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 19-68, February.
    5. Machovina, Brian & Feeley, Kenneth J., 2013. "Climate change driven shifts in the extent and location of areas suitable for export banana production," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 83-95.
    6. Ghahramani, Afshin & Kingwell, Ross S. & Maraseni, Tek Narayan, 2020. "Land use change in Australian mixed crop-livestock systems as a transformative climate change adaptation," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    7. Jianhong E. Mu & Benjamin M. Sleeter & John T. Abatzoglou & John M. Antle, 2017. "Climate impacts on agricultural land use in the USA: the role of socio-economic scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(2), pages 329-345, September.
    8. J. Scott Long & Jeremy Freese, 2006. "Regression Models for Categorical Dependent Variables using Stata, 2nd Edition," Stata Press books, StataCorp LLC, edition 2, number long2, December.
    9. Seo, S. Niggol & McCarl, Bruce A. & Mendelsohn, Robert, 2010. "From beef cattle to sheep under global warming? An analysis of adaptation by livestock species choice in South America," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(12), pages 2486-2494, October.
    10. Yuquan Zhang & Amy Hagerman & Bruce McCarl, 2013. "Influence of climate factors on spatial distribution of Texas cattle breeds," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(2), pages 183-195, May.
    11. Mu, Jianhong E. & McCarl, Bruce A. & Sleeter, Benjamin & Abatzoglou, John T. & Zhang, Hongliang, 2018. "Adaptation with climate uncertainty: An examination of agricultural land use in the United States," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 392-401.
    12. Papke, Leslie E & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1996. "Econometric Methods for Fractional Response Variables with an Application to 401(K) Plan Participation Rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 619-632, Nov.-Dec..
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cheng, Muxi & McCarl, Bruce A. & Fei, Chengcheng, 2022. "Impact of Climate Change on the U.S. Livestock Sector," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322255, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jianhong E. Mu & John M. Antle & John T. Abatzoglou, 2019. "Representative agricultural pathways, climate change, and agricultural land uses: an application to the Pacific Northwest of the USA," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 24(5), pages 819-837, June.
    2. Jianhong Mu & Bruce McCarl & Anne Wein, 2013. "Adaptation to climate change: changes in farmland use and stocking rate in the U.S," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 18(6), pages 713-730, August.
    3. Gaurav Arora & Hongli Feng & Christopher J. Anderson & David A. Hennessy, 2020. "Evidence of climate change impacts on crop comparative advantage and land use," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 51(2), pages 221-236, March.
    4. Mérel, Pierre & Paroissien, Emmanuel & Gammans, Matthew, 2024. "Sufficient statistics for climate change counterfactuals," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    5. Francisco Costa & Fabien Forge & Jason Garred & João Paulo Pessoa, 2020. "Climate Change and the Distribution of Agricultural Output," Working Papers 2003E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    6. Carlo Fezzi & Ian Bateman, 2015. "The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture: Nonlinear Effects and Aggregation Bias in Ricardian Models of Farmland Values," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 2(1), pages 57-92.
    7. Kaixing Huang, 2015. "The Economic Impacts of Global Warming on Agriculture: the Role of Adaptation," School of Economics and Public Policy Working Papers 2015-20, University of Adelaide, School of Economics and Public Policy.
    8. Yuquan W. Zhang & Jianhong E. Mu & Mark Musumba & Bruce A. McCarl & Xiaokun Gu & Yuanfei Zhou & Zhengwei Cao & Qiang Li, 2018. "The Role of Climate Factors in Shaping China’s Crop Mix: An Empirical Exploration," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-17, October.
    9. Sampson, Gabriel S. & Hendricks, Nathan P. & Taylor, Mykel R., 2019. "Land market valuation of groundwater," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    10. David Albouy & Walter Graf & Ryan Kellogg & Hendrik Wolff, 2016. "Climate Amenities, Climate Change, and American Quality of Life," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(1), pages 205-246.
    11. Hodjo, Manzamasso & Dalton, Timothy & Nakelse, Tebila, 2021. "Cereal Land Allocation Under Weather and Price Uncertainties in West Africa," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315177, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    12. Sarah E. Anderson & Terry L. Anderson & Alice C. Hill & Matthew E. Kahn & Howard Kunreuther & Gary D. Libecap & Hari Mantripragada & Pierre Mérel & Andrew J. Plantinga & V. Kerry Smith, 2019. "The Critical Role Of Markets In Climate Change Adaptation," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(01), pages 1-17, February.
    13. Arellano Gonzalez, Jesus, 2018. "Estimating climate change damages in data scarce and non-competitive settings: a novel version of the Ricardian approach with an application to Mexico," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274010, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    14. Anthony C. Fisher & W. Michael Hanemann & Michael J. Roberts & Wolfram Schlenker, 2012. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(7), pages 3749-3760, December.
    15. Massetti, Emanuele & Mendelsohn, Robert & Chonabayashi, Shun, 2016. "How well do degree days over the growing season capture the effect of climate on farmland values?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 144-150.
    16. Ariel Ortiz‐Bobea, 2020. "The Role of Nonfarm Influences in Ricardian Estimates of Climate Change Impacts on US Agriculture," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(3), pages 934-959, May.
    17. Wallace E. Huffman & Yu Jin & Zheng Xu, 2018. "The economic impacts of technology and climate change: New evidence from U.S. corn yields," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 49(4), pages 463-479, July.
    18. Cui, Xiaomeng & Zhong, Zheng, 2024. "Climate change, cropland adjustments, and food security: Evidence from China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    19. Kan, Iddo & Reznik, Ami & Kaminski, Jonathan & Kimhi, Ayal, 2023. "The impacts of climate change on cropland allocation, crop production, output prices and social welfare in Israel: A structural econometric framework," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    20. Fisher, Anthony, 2014. "Climate Science and Climate Economics," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt746627gz, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:10:y:2021:i:11:p:1260-:d:681978. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.