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Impacto macroeconómico del cambio climático en Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Joaquín Bernal-Ramírez
  • Jair Ojeda-Joya
  • Camila Agudelo-Rivera
  • Felipe Clavijo-Ramírez
  • Carolina Durana-Ángel
  • Clark Granger-Castaño
  • Daniel Osorio-Rodríguez
  • Daniel Parra-Amado

Abstract

En este documento se hace una revisión de la literatura relativa a los efectos macroeconómicos esperados de los riesgos físicos y de transición asociados al cambio climático (RACC), identificando las principales fortalezas, debilidades y vacíos en dicha literatura. Esta revisión busca contextualizar su impacto potencial en Colombia en las próximas décadas y reflexionar sobre los desafíos que plantea para el manejo de diversos ámbitos de la política económica. En primer lugar, se examinan los efectos esperados sobre la actividad económica en las próximas décadas. Luego se revisan los posibles efectos de los RACC en el sector externo y se realizan proyecciones del balance en cuenta corriente bajo distintos escenarios climáticos. Enseguida se examina el impacto sobre las finanzas públicas y se presentan los resultados de ejercicios para evaluar diversas alternativas de política sobre la evolución del déficit y la deuda del gobierno nacional. A continuación, se presentan los desafíos que enfrentan las instituciones financieras y las autoridades y se presentan los resultados de un ejercicio de sensibilidad sobre las entidades crediticias en Colombia. Finalmente, se revisa la forma en que se afectarán los objetivos primarios de los bancos centrales, la formulación de sus políticas y sus mecanismos de transmisión. **** ABSTRACT: This document reviews the literature on the expected macroeconomic effects of climate related physical and transition risks (CRR), identifying the main strengths, weaknesses and gaps in said literature. This review seeks to contextualize its potential impact on Colombia in the coming decades and reflect on the challenges it poses for the management of various areas of economic policy. First, the expected effects on economic activity are examined. Then, the possible effects of the CRR on the external sector are reviewed and current account balance projections are made under different climate scenarios. Next, the impact on public finances is examined and the results of exercises to evaluate various policy alternatives on the evolution of the national government's deficit and debt are presented. The challenges faced by financial institutions and authorities are discussed, as well as the results of a sensitivity exercise on banks and credit institutions in Colombia. Finally, the way in which the primary objectives of central banks, the formulation of their policies and their transmission mechanisms will be affected is reviewed.

Suggested Citation

  • Joaquín Bernal-Ramírez & Jair Ojeda-Joya & Camila Agudelo-Rivera & Felipe Clavijo-Ramírez & Carolina Durana-Ángel & Clark Granger-Castaño & Daniel Osorio-Rodríguez & Daniel Parra-Amado, 2022. "Impacto macroeconómico del cambio climático en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, issue 102, pages 1-62, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000107:020296
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    1. Joaquín Bernal-Ramírez & Jair Ojeda-Joya & Camila Agudelo-Rivera & Felipe Clavijo-Ramírez & Carolina Durana-Ángel & Clark Granger-Castaño & Daniel Osorio-Rodríguez & Daniel Parra-Amado & José Pulido &, 2022. "Impacto macroeconómico del cambio climático en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, issue 102, pages 1-62, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cambio climático; Crecimiento económico; Ajuste de cuenta corriente; Impuesto al carbono; Finanzas públicas; Política financiera; Política monetaria; Bancos centrales; Climate change; Economic growth; Current account adjustment; Carbon tax; Public finance; Financial policy; Monetary policy; Central banks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • O44 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Environment and Growth

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