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A Counterfactual Analysis of the Effects of Climate Change on the Natural Interest Rate

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  • Jair Ojeda-Joya

    (Banco de la Republica, Colombia)

Abstract

Climate change will potentially bring about important macroeconomic effects for all countries in the world and especially for emerging economies. I perform a counterfactual analysis to estimate the potential effect of global warming on the natural interest rate using a state-space semi-structural model of inflation and output determination. The model is estimated with quarterly data for Colombia for the period 1994-2019. I simulate gradual warming of 1 degree Celsius during this period and include its potential effect on GDP growth and inflation according to recent cross-country estimations in the literature. The estimation with counterfactual data shows that the counterfactual natural interest rate decreases more rapidly to reach near 0% at the end of the period. This result is induced by the persistently negative effects of higher temperatures on trend output growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Jair Ojeda-Joya, 2022. "A Counterfactual Analysis of the Effects of Climate Change on the Natural Interest Rate," IHEID Working Papers 10-2022, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:gii:giihei:heidwp10-2022
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marshall Burke & Solomon M. Hsiang & Edward Miguel, 2015. "Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production," Nature, Nature, vol. 527(7577), pages 235-239, November.
    2. Mesonnier, Jean-Stephane & Renne, Jean-Paul, 2007. "A time-varying "natural" rate of interest for the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1768-1784, October.
    3. Kahn, Matthew E. & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Ng, Ryan N.C. & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Raissi, Mehdi & Yang, Jui-Chung, 2021. "Long-term macroeconomic effects of climate change: A cross-country analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    4. Alessandro Cantelmo, 2022. "Rare Disasters, the Natural Interest Rate and Monetary Policy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(3), pages 473-496, June.
    5. Bernal-Ramirez, Joaquin & Ocampo, José Antonio, 2020. "Climate change: policies to manage its macroeconomic and financial effects," Working papers 63, Red Investigadores de Economía.
    6. Daniel Buncic, 2020. "Econometric issues with Laubach and Williams' estimates of the natural rate of interest," Papers 2002.11583, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2020.
    7. Brand, Claus & Bielecki, Marcin & Penalver, Adrian, 2018. "The natural rate of interest: estimates, drivers, and challenges to monetary policy JEL Classification: E52, E43," Occasional Paper Series 217, European Central Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Joaquín Bernal-Ramírez & Jair Ojeda-Joya & Camila Agudelo-Rivera & Felipe Clavijo-Ramírez & Carolina Durana-Ángel & Clark Granger-Castaño & Daniel Osorio-Rodríguez & Daniel Parra-Amado & José Pulido &, 2022. "Impacto macroeconómico del cambio climático en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, issue 102, pages 1-62, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Natural Interest Rate; Climate Change; Monetary Policy; Kalman filter;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects

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