IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/gii/giihei/heidwp10-2022.html

A Counterfactual Analysis of the Effects of Climate Change on the Natural Interest Rate

Author

Listed:
  • Jair Ojeda-Joya

    (Banco de la Republica, Colombia)

Abstract

Climate change will potentially bring about important macroeconomic effects for all countries in the world and especially for emerging economies. I perform a counterfactual analysis to estimate the potential effect of global warming on the natural interest rate using a state-space semi-structural model of inflation and output determination. The model is estimated with quarterly data for Colombia for the period 1994-2019. I simulate gradual warming of 1 degree Celsius during this period and include its potential effect on GDP growth and inflation according to recent cross-country estimations in the literature. The estimation with counterfactual data shows that the counterfactual natural interest rate decreases more rapidly to reach near 0% at the end of the period. This result is induced by the persistently negative effects of higher temperatures on trend output growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Jair Ojeda-Joya, 2022. "A Counterfactual Analysis of the Effects of Climate Change on the Natural Interest Rate," IHEID Working Papers 10-2022, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:gii:giihei:heidwp10-2022
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://repec.graduateinstitute.ch/pdfs/Working_papers/HEIDWP10-2022.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mesonnier, Jean-Stephane & Renne, Jean-Paul, 2007. "A time-varying "natural" rate of interest for the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1768-1784, October.
    2. Marshall Burke & Solomon M. Hsiang & Edward Miguel, 2015. "Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production," Nature, Nature, vol. 527(7577), pages 235-239, November.
    3. Brand, Claus & Bielecki, Marcin & Penalver, Adrian, 2018. "The natural rate of interest: estimates, drivers, and challenges to monetary policy JEL Classification: E52, E43," Occasional Paper Series 217, European Central Bank.
    4. Bernal-Ramirez, Joaquin & Ocampo, José Antonio, 2020. "Climate change: policies to manage its macroeconomic and financial effects," Working papers 63, Red Investigadores de Economía.
    5. Kahn, Matthew E. & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Ng, Ryan N.C. & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Raissi, Mehdi & Yang, Jui-Chung, 2021. "Long-term macroeconomic effects of climate change: A cross-country analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    6. Daniel Buncic, 2020. "Econometric issues with Laubach and Williams' estimates of the natural rate of interest," Papers 2002.11583, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2020.
    7. Alessandro Cantelmo, 2022. "Rare Disasters, the Natural Interest Rate and Monetary Policy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(3), pages 473-496, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Joaquín Bernal-Ramírez & Jair Ojeda-Joya & Camila Agudelo-Rivera & Felipe Clavijo-Ramírez & Carolina Durana-Ángel & Clark Granger-Castaño & Daniel Osorio-Rodríguez & Daniel Parra-Amado & José Pulido &, 2022. "Impacto macroeconómico del cambio climático en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, issue 102, pages 1-62, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Joaquín Bernal-Ramírez & Jair Ojeda-Joya & Camila Agudelo-Rivera & Felipe Clavijo-Ramírez & Carolina Durana-Ángel & Clark Granger-Castaño & Daniel Osorio-Rodríguez & Daniel Parra-Amado & José Pulido &, 2022. "Impacto macroeconómico del cambio climático en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, issue 102, pages 1-62, July.
    2. Tobias Kranz & Hamza Bennani & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2024. "Monetary Policy and Climate Change: Challenges and the Role of Major Central Banks," Research Papers in Economics 2024-01, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    3. Cascarano, Michele & Natoli, Filippo & Petrella, Andrea, 2025. "Entry, exit, and market structure in a changing climate," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    4. Gregory Casey & Stephie Fried & Ethan Goode, 2023. "Projecting the Impact of Rising Temperatures: The Role of Macroeconomic Dynamics," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(3), pages 688-718, September.
    5. Kumar, Naveen, 2025. "Beyond GDP: Quantifying Heterogeneous Impact of Climate Change on Well-being and Social Progress," SocArXiv j5kyc_v1, Center for Open Science.
    6. Wang, Chih-Wei & Wu, Yu-Ching & Hsieh, Hsin-Yi & Huang, Po-Hsiang & Lin, Meng-Chieh, 2022. "Does green bond issuance have an impact on climate risk concerns?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    7. Komlan Olakossan GBEGNON & Mikémina PILO & Kounagbè Odilon Boris LOKONON, 2025. "Climate-driven monetary policy: a new Keynesian DSGE analysis for Ghana," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(3(644), A), pages 203-216, Autumn.
    8. Dai, Zhifeng & Zhu, Haoyang, 2024. "Climate policy uncertainty and urban green total factor productivity: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA).
    9. Jiao, Xiyu & Pretis, Felix & Schwarz, Moritz, 2024. "Testing for coefficient distortion due to outliers with an application to the economic impacts of climate change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 239(1).
    10. Agarwala, Matthew & Burke, Matt & Klusak, Patrycja & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Volz, Ulrich & Zenghelis, Dimitri, 2021. "Climate Change And Fiscal Sustainability: Risks And Opportunities," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 258, pages 28-46, November.
    11. Richard S.J. Tol, 2025. "Climate Determinism Reborn," Working Paper Series 0725, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    12. Bhadury, Soumya & Pratap, Bhanu & Gajbhiye, Dhirendra, 2025. "Transition to a greener economy: Climate change risks and resilience in a state-space framework," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    13. Meierrieks, Daniel & Stadelmann, David, 2024. "Is temperature adversely related to economic development? Evidence on the short-run and the long-run links from sub-national data," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 136, pages 1-18.
    14. Seungho Lee & Md Zahangir Alam, 2024. "The impact of climate risk on bank profitability through liquidity creation channel: empirical evidence from G7 countries," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 25(7), pages 726-739, December.
    15. Ahmed, Fatma, 2025. "Ice roads and income in remote indigenous communities of Canada," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    16. Martin Motl & Jaromir Tonner, 2021. "Modelling the impacts of climate change on the global economy: Stagflationary shock looming," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Global Economic Outlook - September 2021, pages 13-22, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    17. Dilian Vassilev, 2021. "A Model of Natural Interest Rate: The Case of Bulgaria," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 7, pages 46-72.
    18. Timothy Neal, 2023. "The Importance of External Weather Effects in Projecting the Economic Impacts of Climate Change," Discussion Papers 2023-09, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    19. Rising, James A. & Taylor, Charlotte & Ives, Matthew C. & Ward, Robert E.t., 2022. "Challenges and innovations in the economic evaluation of the risks of climate change," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 114941, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    20. Nickel, Christiane & Kilponen, Juha & Moral-Benito, Enrique & Koester, Gerrit & Ciccarelli, Matteo & Enders, Almira & Holton, Sarah & Landau, Bettina & Venditti, Fabrizio & Bobeica, Elena & Brand, Cla, 2025. "A strategic view on the economic and inflation environment in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 371, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gii:giihei:heidwp10-2022. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Dorina Dobre (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ieheich.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.