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Climate Change and Fiscal Sustainability: Risks and Opportunities

Author

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  • Agarwala, M.
  • Burke, M.
  • Klusak, P.
  • Mohaddes, K.
  • Volz, U.
  • Zenghelis, D.

Abstract

Both the physical and transition-related impacts of climate change pose substantial macroeconomic risks. Yet, markets still lack credible estimates of how climate change will affect debt sustainability, sovereign creditworthiness, and the public finances of major economies. We present a taxonomy for tracing the physical and transition impacts of climate change through to impacts on sovereign risk. We then apply the taxonomy to the UK's potential transition to net zero. Meeting internationally agreed climate targets will require an unprecedented structural transformation of the global economy over the next two or three decades. The changing landscape of risks warrants new risk management and hedging strategies to contain climate risk and minimise the impact of asset stranding and asset devaluation. Yet, conditional on action being taken early, the opportunities from managing a net zero transition would substantially outweigh the costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Agarwala, M. & Burke, M. & Klusak, P. & Mohaddes, K. & Volz, U. & Zenghelis, D., 2021. "Climate Change and Fiscal Sustainability: Risks and Opportunities," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2163, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  • Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:2163
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    Cited by:

    1. Boitan, Iustina Alina & Marchewka-Bartkowiak, Kamilla, 2022. "Climate change and the pricing of sovereign debt: Insights from European markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    2. Mohaddes, K., & Raissi, M., 2024. "Rising Temperatures, Melting Incomes: Country-Specific Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Scenarios," Janeway Institute Working Papers 2418, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    3. Angela Köppl & Margit Schratzenstaller, 2024. "Policy Brief: Budgetäre Kosten und Risiken durch klimapolitisches Nichthandeln und Klimarisiken," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 70821.
    4. Agarwala, Matthew & Burke, Matt & Klusak, Patrycja & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Volz, Ulrich & Zenghelis, Dimitri, 2021. "Climate Change And Fiscal Sustainability: Risks And Opportunities," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 258, pages 28-46, November.
    5. Kamiar Mohaddes & Ryan N C Ng & M Hashem Pesaran & Mehdi Raissi & Jui-Chung Yang, 2023. "Climate change and economic activity: evidence from US states," Oxford Open Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 2, pages 28-46.
    6. Agarwala, Matthew & Burke, Matt & Doherty-Bigara, Jennifer & Klusak, Patrycja & Mohaddes, Kamiar, 2024. "Climate Change and Sovereign Risk: A Regional Analysis for the Caribbean," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 13478, Inter-American Development Bank.
    7. Jorge M. Uribe, 2023. ""Fiscal crises and climate change"," IREA Working Papers 202303, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Feb 2023.
    8. Werding, Martin & Läpple, Benjamin & Schirner, Sebastian, 2024. "Modellrechnungen für den Sechsten Tragfähigkeitsbericht des BMF," FiFo Reports - FiFo-Berichte 33, University of Cologne, FiFo Institute for Public Economics.
    9. Chester, D. & Lynch, C. & Szerszynski, B. & Mercure, J.-F. & Jarvis, A., 2024. "Heterogeneous capital stocks and economic inertia in the US economy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign debt; climate change; net zero; transition risk; productivity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q55 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Technological Innovation

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