Decoding climate-related risks in sovereign bond pricing: A global perspective

Climate change poses a major risk to financial stability by affecting sovereign credit risk through transition and physical risks. Using data from 52 developed and developing countries over two decades, the study finds that transition risk leads to higher sovereign yields, especially in developing and high-emission countries post-Paris Agreement. Physical risks, such as temperature anomalies, generally aren’t priced in, but high debt levels amplify yield increases during acute climate events. Medium-term projections show varied sovereign yield responses to different climate disasters, with the effects differing by income level and fiscal space, highlighting the complex financial impact of climate change.