IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/riibaf/v65y2023ics0275531923001022.html

Do green financial policies offset the climate transition risk penalty imposed on long-term sovereign bond yields?

Author

Listed:
  • Cheng, Ruijie
  • Gupta, Bhavya
  • Rajan, Ramkishen S.

Abstract

Asset valuations in high-carbon sectors face significant corrections due to climate risks. This paper specifically analyses whether markets impose a penalty on long-term sovereign bonds issued by countries facing higher climate-related transition risk while rewarding those that have implemented green financial policies to mitigate these risks. We find that higher carbon dioxide emissions and a lower sustainable development score (both proxies for transition risks) lead to an increase in long-term sovereign bond yields. However, the presence of green financial policies appears to offset this climate transition risk premium.

Suggested Citation

  • Cheng, Ruijie & Gupta, Bhavya & Rajan, Ramkishen S., 2023. "Do green financial policies offset the climate transition risk penalty imposed on long-term sovereign bond yields?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:65:y:2023:i:c:s0275531923001022
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2023.101976
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0275531923001022
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ribaf.2023.101976?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andreas Karpf & Antoine Mandel, 2018. "The changing value of the ‘green’ label on the US municipal bond market," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(2), pages 161-165, February.
    2. Ströbel, Johannes & Wurgler, Jeffrey, 2021. "What do you think about climate finance?," CEPR Discussion Papers 16622, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Zerbib, Olivier David, 2019. "The effect of pro-environmental preferences on bond prices: Evidence from green bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 39-60.
    4. Marshall, Ben R. & Nguyen, Hung T. & Nguyen, Nhut H. & Visaltanachoti, Nuttawat & Young, Martin, 2021. "Do climate risks matter for green investment?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    5. Michael Donadelli & Patrick Grüning & Steffen Hitzemann, 2019. "Understanding Macro and Asset Price Dynamics During the Climate Transition," Bank of Lithuania Discussion Paper Series 18, Bank of Lithuania.
    6. Beck, Roland, 2001. "Do country fundamentals explain emerging market bond spreads?," CFS Working Paper Series 2001/02, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    7. Philipp Krueger & Zacharias Sautner & Laura T Starks, 2020. "The Importance of Climate Risks for Institutional Investors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(3), pages 1067-1111.
    8. Hannes Boehm, 2022. "Physical climate change and the sovereign risk of emerging economies," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 11(1), pages 1-41, December.
    9. Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Zhang, Yupu, 2020. "Do shareholders benefit from green bonds?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    10. Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak & Donghyun Park, 2016. "Fundamentals and Sovereign Risk of Emerging Markets," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(2), pages 151-177, May.
    11. Mr. Balazs Csonto & Mr. Iryna V. Ivaschenko, 2013. "Determinants of Sovereign Bond Spreads in Emerging Markets: Local Fundamentals and Global Factors vs. Ever-Changing Misalignments," IMF Working Papers 2013/164, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Afonso, António & Nunes, Ana Sofia, 2015. "Economic forecasts and sovereign yields," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 319-326.
    13. Boitan, Iustina Alina & Marchewka-Bartkowiak, Kamilla, 2022. "Climate change and the pricing of sovereign debt: Insights from European markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    14. Poghosyan, Tigran, 2014. "Long-run and short-run determinants of sovereign bond yields in advanced economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 100-114.
    15. Jens Hilscher & Yves Nosbusch, 2010. "Determinants of Sovereign Risk: Macroeconomic Fundamentals and the Pricing of Sovereign Debt," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 14(2), pages 235-262.
    16. Malte Meinshausen & Nicolai Meinshausen & William Hare & Sarah C. B. Raper & Katja Frieler & Reto Knutti & David J. Frame & Myles R. Allen, 2009. "Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 °C," Nature, Nature, vol. 458(7242), pages 1158-1162, April.
    17. Larcker, David F. & Watts, Edward M., 2020. "Where's the greenium?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2).
    18. Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham & Matthew T Gustafson & Ryan C Lewis & Michael Schwert & Gregor Matvos, 2023. "Sea-Level Rise Exposure and Municipal Bond Yields," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 36(11), pages 4588-4635.
    19. Zhang, Si Ying, 2022. "Are investors sensitive to climate-related transition and physical risks? Evidence from global stock markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    20. Myles R. Allen & David J. Frame & Chris Huntingford & Chris D. Jones & Jason A. Lowe & Malte Meinshausen & Nicolai Meinshausen, 2009. "Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne," Nature, Nature, vol. 458(7242), pages 1163-1166, April.
    21. Bolton, Patrick & Kacperczyk, Marcin, 2021. "Do investors care about carbon risk?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 517-549.
    22. Eichler, Stefan, 2014. "The political determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 82-103.
    23. Kakuho Furukawa & Hibiki Ichiue & Noriyuki Shiraki, 2020. "How Does Climate Change Interact with the Financial System? A Survey," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 20-E-8, Bank of Japan.
    24. Griffin, Paul A. & Jaffe, Amy Myers & Lont, David H. & Dominguez-Faus, Rosa, 2015. "Science and the stock market: Investors' recognition of unburnable carbon," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 1-12.
    25. Hickel, Jason, 2020. "The sustainable development index: Measuring the ecological efficiency of human development in the anthropocene," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    26. D’Orazio, Paola & Popoyan, Lilit, 2019. "Fostering green investments and tackling climate-related financial risks: Which role for macroprudential policies?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 25-37.
    27. Bernstein, Asaf & Gustafson, Matthew T. & Lewis, Ryan, 2019. "Disaster on the horizon: The price effect of sea level rise," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(2), pages 253-272.
    28. Elsa Allman, 2022. "Pricing climate change risk in corporate bonds," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(7), pages 596-618, December.
    29. Markus Baldauf & Lorenzo Garlappi & Constantine Yannelis & José Scheinkman, 2020. "Does Climate Change Affect Real Estate Prices? Only If You Believe In It," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(3), pages 1256-1295.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Anghel, Dan Gabriel & Boitan, Iustina Alina & Marchewka-Bartkowiak, Kamilla, 2025. "Climate risk impact on Treasury securities pricing: A global perspective of short-term and long-term period," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    2. Collender, Sierra & Gan, Baoqing & Nikitopoulos, Christina S. & Richards, Kylie-Anne & Ryan, Laura, 2023. "Climate transition risk in sovereign bond markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    3. Niu, Niu & Ma, Junhua & Zheng, Deyuan & Lu, Yang & Zhang, Bin, 2025. "Extreme weather and the green transition of energy firms: The moderating effect of digital technology and digital inclusive finance," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    4. Sofia Anyfantaki & Marianna Blix Grimaldi & Carlos Madeira & Simona Malovana & Georgios Papadopoulos, 2025. "Decoding climate-related risks in sovereign bond pricing: a global perspective," Working Papers 347, Bank of Greece.
    5. Haibo Sun & Shuguang He & Nan Cheng & Zhonglu Liu, 2024. "Climate transition risk and enterprise default probability," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(8), pages 8929-8945, December.
    6. Zhao, Lili & Ma, Yibing & Chen, Na & Wen, Fenghua, 2025. "How does climate policy uncertainty shape corporate investment behavior?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    7. Alessi, Lucia & Duranovic, Anja & Kvedaras, Virmantas & Monasterolo, Irene, 2025. "From risks to opportunities: The impact of green public investment programs on sovereign yields," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(PA).
    8. Li, Qianwen & Qian, Tingyu & Hua, Qian & Min, Jialin & Zhao, Yizhuo & Wang, Qingyuan & Long, Ruyin, 2025. "Collaboration and regulation: A dual regulatory game for the sustainable development of green housing," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    9. Feng, Chao & Zhong, Siqi & Wang, Miao, 2024. "How can green finance promote the transformation of China's economic growth momentum? A perspective from internal structures of green total-factor productivity," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PA).
    10. Li, Xing & Zhou, Yanli & Zhu, Dixing & Ge, Xiangyu, 2024. "Research on effect of extreme climates penalties local government debt pricing: Evidence from urban investment bonds in China," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lee H. Seltzer & Laura Starks & Qifei Zhu, 2022. "Climate Regulatory Risk and Corporate Bonds," NBER Working Papers 29994, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Anghel, Dan Gabriel & Boitan, Iustina Alina & Marchewka-Bartkowiak, Kamilla, 2025. "Climate risk impact on Treasury securities pricing: A global perspective of short-term and long-term period," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    3. Roy Kouwenberg & Chenglong Zheng, 2023. "A Review of the Global Climate Finance Literature," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-32, January.
    4. Kakuho Furukawa & Hibiki Ichiue & Noriyuki Shiraki, 2020. "How Does Climate Change Interact with the Financial System? A Survey," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 20-E-8, Bank of Japan.
    5. Benkraiem, Ramzi & Dimic, Nebojsa & Piljak, Vanja & Swinkels, Laurens & Vulanovic, Milos, 2025. "Media-based climate risks and international corporate bond market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    6. Guesmi, Khaled & Makrychoriti, Panagiota & Pyrgiotakis, Emmanouil G., 2025. "Climate change exposure and green bonds issuance," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    7. Michelfelder, Richard A. & Pilotte, Eugene A., 2024. "U.S. vertically integrated electric utility greenhouse gas emissions and carbon risk premiums around the Paris Accord," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    8. Egemen Eren & Floortje Merten & Niek Verhoeven, 2022. "Pricing of climate risks in financial markets: a summary of the literature," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 130, May.
    9. Ströbel, Johannes & Wurgler, Jeffrey, 2021. "What do you think about climate finance?," CEPR Discussion Papers 16622, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Breckenfelder, Johannes & Maćkowiak, Bartosz & Marqués-Ibáñez, David & Olovsson, Conny & Popov, Alexander & Porcellacchia, Davide & Schepens, Glenn, 2023. "The climate and the economy," Working Paper Series 2793, European Central Bank.
    11. Pham, Linh & Cepni, Oguzhan, 2022. "Extreme directional spillovers between investor attention and green bond markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 186-210.
    12. Pástor, Ľuboš & Stambaugh, Robert F. & Taylor, Lucian A., 2022. "Dissecting green returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 403-424.
    13. Carè, R. & Weber, O., 2023. "How much finance is in climate finance? A bibliometric review, critiques, and future research directions," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    14. Ren, Yi-Shuai & Klein, Tony & Jiang, Yong, 2025. "Corporate investment decisions amid climate risks: Relocate or stay?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    15. Ramelli, Stefano & Ossola, Elisa & Rancan, Michela, 2021. "Stock price effects of climate activism: Evidence from the first Global Climate Strike," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    16. Elsa Allman, 2022. "Pricing climate change risk in corporate bonds," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(7), pages 596-618, December.
    17. Alessi, Lucia & Duranovic, Anja & Kvedaras, Virmantas & Monasterolo, Irene, 2025. "From risks to opportunities: The impact of green public investment programs on sovereign yields," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(PA).
    18. Venturini, Alessio, 2022. "Climate change, risk factors and stock returns: A review of the literature," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    19. Huang, Xiaowei & Cheng, Ge & Zhang, Man, 2025. "Climate change risk and real estate prices—Micro evidence from coastal cities in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    20. Zirek, Duygu & Unsal, Omer, 2023. "Green bonds: Do investors benefit from third-party certification?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:65:y:2023:i:c:s0275531923001022. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ribaf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.