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The political determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads

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  • Eichler, Stefan

Abstract

This paper analyzes the political determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads using data for 27 emerging markets in the period 1996 to 2009. I find strong evidence that countries with parliamentary systems (as opposed to presidential regimes) and a low quality of governance face higher sovereign yield spreads, while the degree of democracy and elections play no significant role. A higher degree of political stability and the power to implement austerity measures significantly reduce sovereign yield spreads particularly in autocratic regimes, while no significant effect is detected for democratic countries. Overall, political determinants have a more pronounced impact on sovereign bond yield spreads in autocratic and closed regimes than in democratic and open countries.

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  • Eichler, Stefan, 2014. "The political determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 82-103.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:46:y:2014:i:c:p:82-103 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2014.04.003
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    2. Balima, Wenéyam Hippolyte & Combes, Jean-Louis & Minea, Alexandru, 2017. "Sovereign debt risk in emerging market economies: Does inflation targeting adoption make any difference?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 360-377.
    3. Jeanneret, Alexandre & Souissi, Slim, 2016. "Sovereign defaults by currency denomination," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 197-222.
    4. Oleg Deev & Martin Hodula, 2016. "Sovereign default risk and state-owned bank fragility in emerging markets: evidence from China and Russia," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(2), pages 232-248, April.
    5. Eichler, Stefan & Plaga, Timo, 2017. "The political determinants of government bond holdings," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PA), pages 1-21.
    6. Patricia Crifo & Marc-Arthur Diaye & Rim Oueghlissi, 2014. "Measuring the effect of government ESG performance on sovereign borrowing cost," CIRANO Working Papers 2014s-37, CIRANO.
    7. Saker Sabkha & Christian De Peretti & Dorra Hmaied, 2017. "International risk spillover in the sovereign credit markets: An empirical analysis," Working Papers hal-01652526, HAL.
    8. Alexandru MINEA & Jean-Louis COMBES & Weneyam Hippolyte BALIMA, 2015. "Sovereign Debt Risk in Emerging Countries: Does Inflation Targeting Adoption Make Any Difference?," Working Papers 201504, CERDI.
    9. Kocsis, Zalan & Monostori, Zoltan, 2016. "The role of country-specific fundamentals in sovereign CDS spreads: Eastern European experiences," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 140-168.
    10. Eichler, Stefan, 2015. "How Do Political Factors Shape the Bank Risk-Sovereign Risk Nexus in Emerging Markets?," Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112877, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. António Afonso & Frederico Silva Leal, 2017. "Sovereign yield spreads in the EMU: crisis and structural determinants," Working Papers Department of Economics 2017/09, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    12. Vu, Huong & Alsakka, Rasha & Gwilym, Owain ap, 2015. "The credit signals that matter most for sovereign bond spreads with split rating," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 174-191.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign bond yield spreads; Political variables; Emerging markets;

    JEL classification:

    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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