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Coalition Governments And Sovereign Debt Crises

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  • SEBASTIAN M. SAIEGH

Abstract

This article examines the domestic politics of sovereign debt crises. I focus on two alternative mechanisms that aggregate the preferences of domestic actors over debt repayment: single-party versus multiparty coalition governments. I uncover a very strong empirical regularity using cross-national data from 48 developing countries between 1971 and 1997. Countries that are governed by a coalition of parties are less likely to reschedule their debts than those under single-party governments. The effect of multiparty coalitions on sovereign defaults is quantitatively large and roughly of the same order of magnitude as liquidity factors such as debt burden and debt service. These results are robust to numerous specifications and samples. Copyright 2009 The Author. Journal compilation 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian M. Saiegh, 2009. "Coalition Governments And Sovereign Debt Crises," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(2), pages 232-254, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecopol:v:21:y:2009:i:2:p:232-254
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    Cited by:

    1. Christoph A. Schaltegger & Martin Weder, 2015. "Fiscal Adjustments and the Probability of Sovereign Default," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(1), pages 81-110, February.
    2. Karatas, B., 2014. "Financial crisis and monetary policy," Other publications TiSEM 41e463f0-e122-4379-8db5-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    3. Matthew DiGiuseppe & Patrick E. Shea, 2016. "Borrowed Time: Sovereign Finance, Regime Type, and Leader Survival," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(3), pages 342-367, November.
    4. Yu Wang, 2013. "Veto Players and Foreign Aid Inflows," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(3), pages 391-408, September.
    5. Eichler, Stefan, 2014. "The political determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 82-103.
    6. Eichler, Stefan & Hofmann, Michael, 2013. "Sovereign default risk and decentralization: Evidence for emerging markets," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 113-134.
    7. Michael Tomz & Mark L.J. Wright, 2013. "Empirical Research on Sovereign Debt and Default," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 247-272, May.
    8. Eijffinger, Sylvester C W & Karatas, Bilge, 2013. "Three Sisters: The Interlinkage between Sovereign Debt, Currency and Banking Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 9369, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Sergio Bejar & Bumba Mukherjee & Will Moore, 2011. "Time horizons matter: the hazard rate of coalition governments and the size of government," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 201-235, September.
    10. Eichler, Stefan & Plaga, Timo, 2017. "The political determinants of government bond holdings," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PA), pages 1-21.
    11. Eichler, Stefan, 2015. "How Do Political Factors Shape the Bank Risk-Sovereign Risk Nexus in Emerging Markets?," Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112877, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    12. repec:bla:rdevec:v:21:y:2017:i:3:p:451-474 is not listed on IDEAS

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