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Sovereign default risk and decentralization: Evidence for emerging markets

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  • Eichler, Stefan
  • Hofmann, Michael

Abstract

We study the impact of decentralization on sovereign default risk. Theory predicts that decentralization deteriorates fiscal discipline since subnational governments undertax/overspend, anticipating that, in the case of overindebtedness, the federal government will bail them out. We analyze whether investors account for this common pool problem by attaching higher sovereign yield spreads to more decentralized countries. Using panel data on up to 30 emerging markets in the period 1993–2008 we confirm this hypothesis. Higher levels of fiscal and political decentralization increase sovereign default risk. Moreover, higher levels of intergovernmental transfers and a larger number of veto players aggravate the common pool problem.

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  • Eichler, Stefan & Hofmann, Michael, 2013. "Sovereign default risk and decentralization: Evidence for emerging markets," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 113-134.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:poleco:v:32:y:2013:i:c:p:113-134
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2013.06.009
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    Cited by:

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    2. Sola, Sergio & Palomba, Geremia, 2016. "Sub-nationals' risk premia in fiscal federations: Fiscal performance and institutional design," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 165-187.
    3. Arazmuradov, Annageldy, 2016. "Assessing sovereign debt default by efficiency," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 100-113.
    4. Stefan Eichler, 2017. "How Do Political Factors Shape the Bank Risk–Sovereign Risk Nexus in Emerging Markets?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 451-474, August.
    5. Lang Yang, 2019. "The impact of state intervention and bankruptcy authorization laws on local government deficits," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 305-328, December.
    6. Eichler, Stefan, 2015. "How Do Political Factors Shape the Bank Risk-Sovereign Risk Nexus in Emerging Markets?," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112877, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign default risk; Decentralization; Common pool problem; Emerging markets; Panel regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • H74 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Borrowing

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