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This changes everything: Climate shocks and sovereign bonds⁎

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  • Cevik, Serhan
  • Jalles, João Tovar

Abstract

Climate change is already a systemic risk to the global economy. While there is a large body of literature documenting potential economic consequences, there is scarce research on the link between climate change and sovereign risk. This paper therefore investigates the impact of climate change vulnerability and resilience on sovereign bond yields and spreads in 98 advanced and developing countries over the period 1995–2017. We find that the vulnerability and resilience to climate change have a significant impact on the cost government borrowing, after controlling for conventional determinants of sovereign risk. That is, countries that are more resilient to climate change have lower bond yields and spreads relative to countries with greater vulnerability to risks associated with climate change. Furthermore, partitioning the sample into country groups reveals that the magnitude and statistical significance of these effects are much greater in developing countries with weaker capacity to adapt to and mitigate the consequences of climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Cevik, Serhan & Jalles, João Tovar, 2022. "This changes everything: Climate shocks and sovereign bonds⁎," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:107:y:2022:i:c:s014098832200041x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2022.105856
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    Cited by:

    1. Gong Cheng & Eric Jondeau & Benoit Mojon, 2022. "Building portfolios of sovereign securities with decreasing carbon footprints," BIS Working Papers 1038, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Pauline Avril & Gregory Levieuge & Camelia Turcu, 2021. "Natural Disasters and Financial Stress: Can Macroprudential Regulation Tame Green Swans?," Working Papers 2021.13, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    3. Ferreira, Susana, 2024. "Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change: Economic Impacts and Adaptation Policies," IZA Discussion Papers 16715, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Yang, Lu & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2023. "Modeling the global sovereign credit network under climate change," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    5. Cevik, Serhan & Jalles, João Tovar, 2023. "For whom the bell tolls: Climate change and income inequality," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    6. Drudi, Francesco & Moench, Emanuel & Holthausen, Cornelia & Weber, Pierre-François & Ferrucci, Gianluigi & Setzer, Ralph & Adao, Bernardino & Dées, Stéphane & Alogoskoufis, Spyros & Téllez, Mar Delgad, 2021. "Climate change and monetary policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 271, European Central Bank.
    7. Julia Anna Bingler, 2022. "Expect the worst, hope for the best: The valuation of climate risks and opportunities in sovereign bonds," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 22/371, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    8. Mr. Serhan Cevik & João Tovar Jalles, 2023. "Eye of the Storm: The Impact of Climate Shocks on Inflation and Growth," IMF Working Papers 2023/087, International Monetary Fund.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate change; Vulnerability; Resilience; Government bond yields and spreads;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

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