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Contagion of Fear: Is the Impact of COVID-19 on Sovereign Risk Really Indiscriminate?

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  • Mr. Serhan Cevik
  • Belma Öztürkkal

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of infectious diseases on the evolution of sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads for a panel of 77 advanced and developing countries. Using annual data over the 2004-2020 period, we find that infectious-disease outbreaks have no discernible effect on CDS spreads, after controlling for macroeconomic and institutional factors. However, our granular analysis using high-frequency (daily) data indicates that the COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on market-implied sovereign default risk. This adverse effect appears to be more pronounced in advanced economies, which may reflect the greater severity of the pandemic and depth of the ensuing economic crisis in these countries as well as widespread underreporting in developing countries due to differences in testing availability and institutional capacity. While our analysis also shows that more stringent domestic containment measures help lower sovereign CDS spreads, the macro-fiscal cost of efforts aimed at curbing the spread of the disease could undermine credit worthiness and eventually push the cost of borrowing higher.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Serhan Cevik & Belma Öztürkkal, 2020. "Contagion of Fear: Is the Impact of COVID-19 on Sovereign Risk Really Indiscriminate?," IMF Working Papers 2020/263, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2020/263
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    Cited by:

    1. Amr Hosny & Kevin Pallara, 2023. "Economic Activity, Fiscal Space and Types of COVID-19 Containment Measures," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 319-355, November.
    2. Di Tommaso, Caterina & Perdichizzi, Salvatore & Vigne, Samuel & Zaghini, Andrea, 2025. "Is the Government always greener?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    3. Iustina Alina Boitan & Kamilla Marchewka-Bartkowiak, 2021. "The Sovereign-Bank Nexus in the Face of the COVID-19 Pandemic Outbreak—Evidence from EU Member States," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-21, May.
    4. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Eugenia Grecu, 2023. "Government Interventions and Sovereign Bond Market Volatility during COVID-19: A Quantile Analysis," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-14, February.
    5. Inoguchi, Masahiro, 2025. "The impact of global shocks on sovereign risk: Role of domestic factors," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 49(2).
    6. Gül Huyugüzel Kışla & Y. Gülnur Muradoğlu & A. Özlem Önder, 2022. "Spillovers from one country’s sovereign debt to CDS (credit default swap) spreads of others during the European crisis: a spatial approach," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(4), pages 277-296, July.
    7. Andrieș, Alin Marius & Ongena, Steven & Sprincean, Nicu, 2021. "The COVID-19 Pandemic and Sovereign Bond Risk," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    8. Mohamed M. Sraieb & Shahnawaz Muhammed & Vladimir Dženopoljac & Samet Gunay, 2025. "Determinants of Russia’s probability of default: evidence from domestic and global indicators," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 49(3), pages 854-882, September.
    9. Capraru, Bogdan & Georgescu, George & Sprincean, Nicu, 2023. "Fiscal Rules, Independent Fiscal Institutions, and Sovereign Risk," Working Papers of Romania Fiscal Council 230201, Romania Fiscal Council.
    10. Sunal, Onur & Yağcı, Filiz, 2024. "The determinants of Turkish CDS volatility: An ARDL approach covering COVID period," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    11. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Abdurrahman Nazif Çatık & Mohamad Husam Helmi & Coşkun Akdeniz & Ali İlhan, 2024. "Time-varying effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on stock markets and economic activity: evidence from the US and Europe," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 51(2), pages 529-558, May.
    12. Bȩdowska-Sójka, Barbara & Kliber, Agata, 2022. "Impact of COVID-19 on sovereign risk: Latin America versus Asia," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    13. Kanno, Masayasu, 2024. "Assessing the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on sovereign default risk," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    14. Hau, Liya & Yang, Dingyi & Zeng, Qingyao & Zhu, Huiming, 2025. "Time-frequency quantile co-movement between agricultural commodities and sovereign CDS: Evidence from Latin America countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).

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