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Climate Change and Economic Activity: Evidence from U.S. States

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Listed:
  • Mohaddes, K.
  • Ng, R. N. C.
  • Pesaran, M. H.
  • Raissi, M.
  • Yang, J-C.

Abstract

We investigate the long-term macroeconomic effects of climate change across 48 U.S. states over the period 1963-2016 using a novel econometric strategy which links deviations of temperature and precipitation (weather) from their long-term moving-average historical norms (climate) to various state-specific economic performance indicators at the aggregate and sectoral levels. We show that climate change has a long-lasting adverse impact on real output in various states and economic sectors, and on labour productivity and employment in the United States. Moreover, in contrast to most cross-country results, our within U.S. estimates tend to be asymmetrical with respect to deviations of climate variables (including precipitation) from their historical norms.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohaddes, K. & Ng, R. N. C. & Pesaran, M. H. & Raissi, M. & Yang, J-C., 2022. "Climate Change and Economic Activity: Evidence from U.S. States," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2205, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    • Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:2205
    Note: km418, mhp1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Sylvain Leduc & Daniel J. Wilson, 2023. "Climate Change and the Geography of the U.S. Economy," Working Paper Series 2023-17, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. Bo Zhao, 2022. "The Impact of Weather on Local Government Spending," Working Papers 22-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    3. Oscar Claveria & Petar Sorić, 2023. "Labour market uncertainty after the irruption of COVID-19," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(4), pages 1897-1945, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate change; economic growth; adaptation; United States;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O44 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Environment and Growth
    • O51 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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