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Climate Change and Economic Activity: Evidence from US States

Author

Listed:
  • Kamiar Mohaddes
  • Ryan N. C. Ng
  • M. Hashem Pesaran
  • Mehdi Raissi
  • Jui-Chung Yang

Abstract

We investigate the long-term macroeconomic effects of climate change across 48 U.S. states over the period 1963 2016 using a novel econometric strategy which links deviations of temperature and precipitation (weather) from their long-term moving-average historical norms (climate) to various state-specific economic performance indicators at the aggregate and sectoral levels. We show that climate change has a long-lasting adverse impact on real output in various states and economic sectors, and on labour productivity and employment in the United States. Moreover, in contrast to most cross-country results, our within U.S. estimates tend to be asymmetrical with respect to deviations of climate variables (including precipitation) from their historical norms.

Suggested Citation

  • Kamiar Mohaddes & Ryan N. C. Ng & M. Hashem Pesaran & Mehdi Raissi & Jui-Chung Yang, 2022. "Climate Change and Economic Activity: Evidence from US States," CAMA Working Papers 2022-10, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2022-10
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    File URL: https://crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/2025-05/10_2022_Mohaddes_Ng_Pesaran_Raissi_Yang.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Sylvain Leduc & Daniel J. Wilson, 2023. "Climate Change and the Geography of the U.S. Economy," Working Paper Series 2023-17, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. Young-Han Kim, 0000. "Macroeconomic Impacts of Climate Change under NGFS Scenarios and Monetary Policy," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences 15016746, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    3. Chen, Yiyang & Mamon, Rogemar & Spagnolo, Fabio & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2025. "Stock market returns and climate risk in the U.S," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    4. Chavleishvili, Sulkhan & Moench, Emanuel, 2025. "Natural disasters as macroeconomic tail risks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    5. Matt Burke & Matthew Agarwala & Patrycja Klusak & Kamiar Mohaddes, 2024. "Climate Policy and Sovereign Debt: The Impact of Transition Scenarios on Sovereign Creditworthiness," CAMA Working Papers 2024-73, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    6. Gadea Rivas, María Dolores & Gonzalo, Jesús, 2025. "Regional Heterogeneity and Warming Dominance in the contiguous United States," UC3M Working papers. Economics 47893, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    7. Emanuele Bacchiocchi & Andrea Bastianin & Graziano Moramarco, 2026. "Macroeconomic Spillovers of Weather Shocks Across U.S. States," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 88(1), pages 141-156, February.
    8. Kumar, Naveen, 2025. "Beyond GDP: Quantifying Heterogeneous Impact of Climate Change on Well-being and Social Progress," SocArXiv j5kyc_v1, Center for Open Science.
    9. Meierrieks, Daniel & Stadelmann, David, 2024. "Is temperature adversely related to economic development? Evidence on the short-run and the long-run links from sub-national data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    10. Liu, Lucy Q. & Pan, Dan & Raissi, Mehdi, 2025. "Macroeconomic effects of climate change: Evidence from Canadian provinces," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    11. Gadea Rivas, María Dolores & Gonzalo, Jesús, 2024. "Regional heterogeneity and warming dominance in the United States," UC3M Working papers. Economics 45017, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    12. Bo Zhao, 2022. "The Impact of Weather on Local Government Spending," Working Papers 22-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    13. Oscar Claveria & Petar Sorić, 2023. "Labour market uncertainty after the irruption of COVID-19," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(4), pages 1897-1945, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O44 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Environment and Growth
    • O51 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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