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Regional heterogeneity and warming dominance in the United States

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  • Gadea Rivas, María Dolores
  • Gonzalo, Jesús

Abstract

Climate change exhibits both spatial and temporal heterogeneity, requiring a dual approach to mitigation and adaptation policies that addresses global and local challenges. Accurately measuringthis heterogeneity is essential for attribution and impact analysis. This study introduces straightforward quantitative tools to detectthe presence of warming, characterize warming types, and compare warming processes across regions through the concept of "warming dominance". These analyses are presented in a robust, testable format, considering the entire temperature distribution rather thanjust the mean. Applied to the United States from 1950 to 2021,the results indicate that while 50% of states do not exhibit warmingin terms of mean temperature, warming is detectable in 84% ofstates when different quantiles are considered. Clear heterogeneity inwarming patterns is observed: some states show no warming, others exhibit stronger warming in lower quantiles, some in upper quantiles,and a few demonstrate uniform warming across the temperature distribution.The paper concludes by identifying which states exhibit warming dominance over others and which states are subject to suchdominance.

Suggested Citation

  • Gadea Rivas, María Dolores & Gonzalo, Jesús, 2024. "Regional heterogeneity and warming dominance in the United States," UC3M Working papers. Economics 45017, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    • Handle: RePEc:cte:werepe:45017
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kamiar Mohaddes & Ryan N C Ng & M Hashem Pesaran & Mehdi Raissi & Jui-Chung Yang, 2023. "Climate change and economic activity: evidence from US states," Oxford Open Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 2, pages 28-46.
    2. Lin Ye & Nancy Grimm, 2013. "Modelling potential impacts of climate change on water and nitrate export from a mid-sized, semiarid watershed in the US Southwest," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(1), pages 419-431, September.
    3. Gadea Rivas, María Dolores & Gonzalo, Jesús, 2020. "Trends in distributional characteristics: Existence of global warming," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 214(1), pages 153-174.
    4. José-Luis Cruz & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2024. "The Economic Geography of Global Warming," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(2), pages 899-939.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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