Dynamics of temperatures and economic activity in Italy: a long-term analysis

This paper reconstructs the dynamics of temperatures at the provincial level in Italy since the end of the 19th century and estimates their effects on the economy. The analysis spans a long period of time using ten-year average data that allow us to appreciate the impact of the temperature increases that can be attributed to changes in climate rather than to short-term meteorological variability. We find that average temperatures in Italy have increased by about 2°C since the beginning of the twentieth century with homogeneous growth trends across regions. The estimates of the relationship between economic growth and temperatures are made using two different empirical methodologies (panel data and autoregressive distributed lags, ARDL) and show how global warming has had negative repercussions on the Italian economy that became more pronounced at the end of twentieth century. These estimates are used to assess the potential impacts of future temperature increases. More specifically, based on our analysis, further increases that would bring average temperatures in 2100 to +1.5°C higher than today (a scenario corresponding to 'intermediate' greenhouse gas emissions) would reduce economic growth, leading to a level of per capita GDP between 2.8 and 9.5 per cent lower than under a +2 per cent growth scenario (i.e. the pace recorded since the beginning of the twentieth century).