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The impact of weather shocks on employment outcomes: evidence from South Africa

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  • Brookes Gray, Harriet
  • Taraz, Vis
  • Halliday, Simon D.

Abstract

Climate change is increasing the frequency of extreme weather events, such as drought and heat waves. In this paper, we assess the impact of drought and high temperatures on the employment outcomes of working-age individuals in South Africa between 2008 and 2017. We merge high-resolution weather data with detailed individual-level survey data on labor market outcomes, and estimate causal impacts using a fixed effects framework. We find that increases in the occurrence of drought reduce overall employment. These effects are concentrated in the tertiary sector, amongst informal workers, and in provinces with a higher reliance on tourism. Taken together, our results suggest that the impacts of climate change will be felt unequally by South Africa's workers.

Suggested Citation

  • Brookes Gray, Harriet & Taraz, Vis & Halliday, Simon D., 2023. "The impact of weather shocks on employment outcomes: evidence from South Africa," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(3), pages 285-305, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:endeec:v:28:y:2023:i:3:p:285-305_5
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    Cited by:

    1. Wagner, Patrick, 2025. "The hole dug deeper: Flash floods, income disparities, and labor informality in Brazil," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    2. Jefferson Muñoz & Alex Perez & Jaime Carabali, 2025. "Choques climáticos, productividad y desempeño de las firmas de la industria manufacturera en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 1298, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Ampofo, Akwasi & Awaworyi Churchill, Sefa & Baako, Kingsley & Kavaarpuo, Godwin, 2025. "Burning the Australian dream: Temperature shocks and homeownership in Australia," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    4. Moustafa Feriga & Nancy Lozano Gracia & Pieter Serneels, 2025. "The Impact of Climate Change on Work: Lessons for Developing Countries," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 40(1), pages 104-146.
    5. Castells-Quintana, David & Lopez-Uribe, Maria del Pilar & McDermott, Thomas K.J., 2022. "Population displacement and urban conflict: Global evidence from more than 3300 flood events," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    6. Jefferson Muñoz & Alex Pérez & Jaime Carabali & Guillermo Buenaventura, 2026. "Weather shocks, productivity, and performance of manufacturing firms in Colombia," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 70(3), pages 1-28, March.
    7. Moustafa Feriga & Nancy Lozano Gracia & Pieter Serneels, 2025. "The Impact of Climate Change on Work: Lessons for Developing Countries," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 40(1), pages 104-146.
    8. Yonas T. Bahta & Vuyiseka A. Myeki, 2022. "The Impact of Agricultural Drought on Smallholder Livestock Farmers: Empirical Evidence Insights from Northern Cape, South Africa," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-24, March.

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