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Carbon Lock†In: The Role Of Expectations

Author

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  • Gerard van der Meijden
  • Sjak Smulders

Abstract

We argue that expectations about future energy use affect the transition from fossil to renewables because of an interaction between innovation and resource scarcity. This article presents a model of directed technical change to study this interaction. We find that fossil†saving technical change erodes the incentives to implement renewables. Conversely, the anticipation of a transition to renewables diminishes the incentives to invest in fossil technology. As a result, two equilibria may arise, one with a transition to renewables and with low fossil efficiency and one without renewables and with high fossil efficiency. Expectations determine which equilibrium arises.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerard van der Meijden & Sjak Smulders, 2017. "Carbon Lock†In: The Role Of Expectations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 58(4), pages 1371-1415, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:iecrev:v:58:y:2017:i:4:p:1371-1415
    DOI: 10.1111/iere.12255
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    Cited by:

    1. Stern, Nicholas, 2021. "A time for action on climate change and a time for change in economics," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 112802, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Alena Miftakhova & Clément Renoir, 2021. "Economic Growth and Equity in Anticipation of Climate Policy," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 21/355, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    3. van den Bijgaart, Inge & Rodriguez, Mauricio, 2023. "Closing wells: Fossil development and abandonment in the energy transition," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    4. Frank W. Geels & Jonatan Pinkse & Dimitri Zenghelis, 2021. "Productivity opportunities and risks in a transformative,low-carbon and digital age," Working Papers 009, The Productivity Institute.
    5. Wei Jin & ZhongXiang Zhang, 2018. "Capital Accumulation, Green Paradox, and Stranded Assets: An Endogenous Growth Perspective," Working Papers 2018.33, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    6. Gustav Engström & Johan Gars & Niko Jaakkola & Therese Lindahl & Daniel Spiro & Arthur A. van Benthem, 2020. "What Policies Address Both the Coronavirus Crisis and the Climate Crisis?," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(4), pages 789-810, August.
    7. Agarwala, Matthew & Burke, Matt & Klusak, Patrycja & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Volz, Ulrich & Zenghelis, Dimitri, 2021. "Climate Change And Fiscal Sustainability: Risks And Opportunities," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 258, pages 28-46, November.
    8. Paola D'Orazio, 2022. "Mapping the emergence and diffusion of climate-related financial policies: Evidence from a cluster analysis on G20 countries," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 169, pages 135-147.
    9. Zhou, Sophie, 2020. "Innovation and the macroeconomy," Other publications TiSEM 2225a10d-0121-4ff7-91fe-2, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    10. Stern, Nicholas, 2021. "A time for action on climate change and a time for change in economics," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 112808, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. Stern, Nicholas & Valero, Anna, 2021. "Innovation, growth and the transition to net-zero emissions," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(9).
    12. Jin, Wei, 2021. "Path dependence, self-fulfilling expectations, and carbon lock-in," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    13. van den Bijgaart, Inge & Rodriguez, Mauricio, 2020. "Closing wells; fossil exploration and abandonment in the energy transition," Working Papers in Economics 789, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    14. Matthew K. Agarwala & Diane Coyle & Cristina Peñasco & Dimitri Zenghelis, 2024. "Measuring for the Future, Not the Past," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring and Accounting for Environmental Public Goods: A National Accounts Perspective, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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