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The Growth Effects of El Niño and La Niña: Local Weather Conditions Matter

Author

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  • Rémi Generoso
  • Cécile Couharde
  • Olivier Damette
  • Kamiar Mohaddes

Abstract

This paper contributes to the climate-economy literature by analysing the role of weather patterns in influencing the transmission of global climate cycles to economic growth. More specifically, we focus on El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and their interactions with local weather conditions, taking into account the heterogeneous and cumulative effects of weather patterns on economic growth and the asymmetry and nonlinearity in the global influence of ENSO on economic activity. Using data on 75 “teleconnected” countries over the period 1975-2014, we provide evidence for the negative growth effects of ENSO events and show that there are substantial differences between its warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) phases and between climate zones. These differences are due to the heterogeneity in weather responses to ENSO events, known as teleconnections, which has so far not been taken into account by economists, and which will become more important in the climate-economy relationship given that climate change may substantially strengthen longdistance relationships between weather patterns around the world. We also show that the negative growth effects associated with these teleconnections are robust to the definition of ENSO events, to the use of alternative climatic variables and more important over shorter meteorological onsets.

Suggested Citation

  • Rémi Generoso & Cécile Couharde & Olivier Damette & Kamiar Mohaddes, 2020. "The Growth Effects of El Niño and La Niña: Local Weather Conditions Matter," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 140, pages 83-126.
  • Handle: RePEc:adr:anecst:y:2020:i:140:p:83-126
    DOI: 10.15609/annaeconstat2009.140.0083
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    Cited by:

    1. Oscar Zapata, 2023. "Weather Disasters, Material Losses and Income Inequality: Evidence from a Tropical, Middle-Income Country," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 231-251, July.
    2. Richard S.J. Tol, 2020. "The Economic Impact of Weather and Climate," Video Library 2094, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    3. David Ubilava, 2023. "Climate, Crops, and Postharvest Conflict," Papers 2311.16370, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    4. Luis Fernando Melo‐Velandia & Camilo Andrés Orozco‐Vanegas & Daniel Parra‐Amado, 2022. "Extreme weather events and high Colombian food prices: A non‐stationary extreme value approach," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 53(S1), pages 21-40, November.
    5. Atems, Bebonchu & Sardar, Naafey, 2021. "Exploring asymmetries in the effects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on U.S. food and agricultural stock prices," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1-14.

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    Keywords

    Promotion; Incentives; Reputation; Career Concerns; Belief Precision; Talent;
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    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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