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Climate change and developing country growth: the cases of Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia

Author

Listed:
  • Channing Arndt

    (International Food Policy Research Institute)

  • Paul Chinowsky

    (University of Colorado at Boulder)

  • Charles Fant

    (Industrial Economics Inc.)

  • Sergey Paltsev

    (MIT)

  • C. Adam Schlosser

    (MIT)

  • Kenneth Strzepek

    (MIT)

  • Finn Tarp

    (United Nations University)

  • James Thurlow

    (International Food Policy Research Institute)

Abstract

We consider the interplay of climate change impacts, global mitigation policies, and the economic interests of developing countries to 2050. Focusing on Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia, we employ a structural approach to biophysical and economic modeling that incorporates climate uncertainty and allows for rigorous comparison of climate, biophysical, and economic outcomes across global mitigation regimes. We find that effective global mitigation policies generate two sources of benefit. First, less distorted climate outcomes result in typically more favorable and less variable economic outcomes. Second, successful global mitigation policies reduce global fossil fuel producer prices, relative to unconstrained emissions, providing a substantial terms of trade boost of structural fuel importers. Combined, these gains are on the order of or greater than estimates of mitigation costs. These results highlight the interests of most developing countries in effective global mitigation policies, even in the relatively near term, with much larger benefits post-2050.

Suggested Citation

  • Channing Arndt & Paul Chinowsky & Charles Fant & Sergey Paltsev & C. Adam Schlosser & Kenneth Strzepek & Finn Tarp & James Thurlow, 2019. "Climate change and developing country growth: the cases of Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 154(3), pages 335-349, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:154:y:2019:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-019-02428-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-019-02428-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arndt, Channing & Davies, Rob & Gabriel, Sherwin & Makrelov, Konstantin & Merven, Bruno & Hartley, Faaiqa & Thurlow, James, 2016. "A sequential approach to integrated energy modeling in South Africa," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 591-599.
    2. Charles Fant & Yohannes Gebretsadik & Alyssa McCluskey & Kenneth Strzepek, 2015. "An uncertainty approach to assessment of climate change impacts on the Zambezi River Basin," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 130(1), pages 35-48, May.
    3. Paul Chinowsky & Amy Schweikert & Niko Strzepek & Ken Strzepek, 2015. "Infrastructure and climate change: a study of impacts and adaptations in Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 130(1), pages 49-62, May.
    4. Channing Arndt & James Thurlow, 2015. "Climate uncertainty and economic development: evaluating the case of Mozambique to 2050," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 130(1), pages 63-75, May.
    5. Derek D. Headey & William J. Martin, 2016. "The Impact of Food Prices on Poverty and Food Security," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 329-351, October.
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    7. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2010. "The Natural Resource Curse: A Survey," Scholarly Articles 4454156, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
    8. Channing Arndt & Adam Schlosser & Kenneth Strzepek & James Thurlow, 2014. "Climate Change and Economic Growth Prospects for Malawi: An Uncertainty Approach," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 23(suppl_2), pages 83-107.
    9. Paltsev, Sergey, 2012. "Implications of Alternative Mitigation Policies on World Prices for Fossil Fuels and Agricultural Products," WIDER Working Paper Series 065, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    10. Channing Arndt & Charles Fant & Sherman Robinson & Kenneth Strzepek, 2015. "Informed selection of future climates," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 130(1), pages 21-33, May.
    11. Channing Arndt & M. Azhar Hussain & E. Samuel Jones & Virgulino Nhate & Finn Tarp & James Thurlow, 2013. "Explaining the Evolution of Poverty: The Case of Mozambique," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 95(1), pages 206-206.
    12. Channing Arndt & Finn Tarp, 2015. "Climate change impacts and adaptations: lessons learned from the greater Zambeze River Valley and beyond," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 130(1), pages 1-8, May.
    13. Derek D Headey, 2018. "Food Prices and Poverty," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 32(3), pages 676-691.
    14. James E. Neumann & Kerry A. Emanuel & Sai Ravela & Lindsay C. Ludwig & Caroleen Verly, 2013. "Assessing the Risk of Cyclone-Induced Storm Surge and Sea Level Rise in Mozambique," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2013-036, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    15. C. Schlosser & Kenneth Strzepek, 2015. "Regional climate change of the greater Zambezi River Basin: a hybrid assessment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 130(1), pages 9-19, May.
    16. repec:unu:wpaper:wp2012-65 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Channing Arndt & Adam Schlosser & Kenneth Strzepek & James Thurlow, 2014. "Climate Change and Economic Growth Prospects for Malawi: An Uncertainty Approach," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 23(suppl_2), pages 83-107.
    18. Sergey Paltsev, 2012. "Implications of Alternative Mitigation Policies on World Prices for Fossil Fuels and Agricultural Products," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2012-065, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    19. Sachs, Jeffrey D. & Warner, Andrew M., 2001. "The curse of natural resources," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 827-838, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Joaquín Bernal-Ramírez & Jair Ojeda-Joya & Camila Agudelo-Rivera & Felipe Clavijo-Ramírez & Carolina Durana-Ángel & Clark Granger-Castaño & Daniel Osorio-Rodríguez & Daniel Parra-Amado & José Pulido &, 2022. "Impacto macroeconómico del cambio climático en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, issue 102, pages 1-62, July.
    2. Camila Agudelo-Rivera & Clark Granger-Castaño & Andrés Sánchez-Jabba, 2022. "The Expected Effects of Climate Change on Colombia’s Current Account," Borradores de Economia 1214, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Lourenço Manuel & Orcídia Chiziane & Gaby Mandhlate & Faaiqa Hartley & Emílio Tostão, 2021. "Impact of climate change on the agriculture sector and household welfare in Mozambique: an analysis based on a dynamic computable general equilibrium model," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(1), pages 1-18, July.
    4. Adam Schlosser & Andrei Sokolov & Ken Strzepek & Tim Thomas & Xiang Gao & Channing Arndt, 2021. "The changing nature of hydroclimatic risks across South Africa," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 168(3), pages 1-25, October.
    5. Channing Arndt & Chris Loewald & Konstantin Makrelov, 2020. "Climate change and its implications for central banks in emerging and developing economies," Working Papers 10001, South African Reserve Bank.
    6. João Z. Carrilho & Ines A. Ferreira & Rui N. Ribeiro & Finn Tarp, 2021. "The relative neglect of agriculture in Mozambique," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2021-135, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    7. Yubin Zhao & Shuguang Liu, 2023. "Effects of Climate Change on Economic Growth: A Perspective of the Heterogeneous Climate Regions in Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-22, April.

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