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Informed selection of future climates

Author

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  • Channing Arndt
  • Charles Fant
  • Sherman Robinson
  • Kenneth Strzepek

Abstract

Analysis of climate change is often computationally burdensome. Here, we present an approach for intelligently selecting a sample of climates from a population of 6800 climates designed to represent the full distribution of likely climate outcomes out to 2050 for the Zambeze River Valley. Philosophically, our approach draws upon information theory. Technically, our approach draws upon the numerical integration literature and recent applications of Gaussian quadrature sampling. In our approach, future climates in the Zambeze River Valley are summarized in 12 variables. Weighted Gaussian quadrature samples containing approximately 400 climates are then obtained using the information from these 12 variables. Specifically, the moments of the 12 summary variables in the samples, out to order three, are obliged to equal (or be close to) the moments of the population of 6800 climates. Runoff in the Zambeze River Valley is then estimated for 2026 to 2050 using the CliRun model for all 6800 climates. It is then straightforward to compare the properties of various subsamples. Based on a root of mean square error (RMSE) criteria, the Gaussian quadrature samples substantially outperform random samples of the same size in the prediction of annual average runoff from 2026 to 2050. Relative to random samples, Gaussian quadrature samples tend to perform best when climate change effects are stronger. We conclude that, when properly employed, Gaussian quadrature samples provide an efficient and tractable way to treat climate uncertainty in biophysical and economic models. Copyright UNU-WIDER 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Channing Arndt & Charles Fant & Sherman Robinson & Kenneth Strzepek, 2015. "Informed selection of future climates," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 130(1), pages 21-33, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:130:y:2015:i:1:p:21-33
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1159-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. DeVuyst, Eric A. & Preckel, Paul V., 1997. "Sensitivity analysis revisited: A quadrature-based approach," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 175-185, April.
    2. Channing Arndt & Finn Tarp & James Thurlow, 2015. "The Economic Costs of Climate Change: A Multi-Sector Impact Assessment for Vietnam," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-15, April.
    3. World Bank, 2010. "Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change : Synthesis Report," World Bank Publications - Reports 12750, The World Bank Group.
    4. Strzepek, Kenneth & Schlosser, C. Adam, 2013. "Regional Climate Change of the Greater Zambezi River Basin: A Hybrid Assessment," WIDER Working Paper Series 040, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    5. Channing Arndt & Finn Tarp & James Thurlow, 2015. "The Economic Costs of Climate Change: A Multi-Sector Impact Assessment for Vietnam," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(4), pages 1-15, April.
    6. Judge,George G. & Mittelhammer,Ron C., 2012. "An Information Theoretic Approach to Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521869591, October.
    7. repec:unu:wpaper:wp2012-082 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Judge,George G. & Mittelhammer,Ron C., 2012. "An Information Theoretic Approach to Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521689731, October.
    9. Adam Schlosser & Kenneth Strzepek, 2013. "Regional Climate Change of the Greater Zambezi River Basin: A Hybrid Assessment," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2013-040, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
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    Cited by:

    1. Yohannes Gebretsadik & Kenneth Strzepek & Adam Schlosser, 2014. "A Hybrid Approach to Incorporating Climate Change and Variability into Climate Scenario for Impact Assessments," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2014-112, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    2. Channing Arndt & Paul Chinowsky & Charles Fant & Yohannes Gebretsadik & James E. Neumann & Sergey Paltsev & C. Adam Schlosser & Kenneth Strzepek & Finn Tarp & James Thurlow, 2015. "Climate change and developing country interests: Cases from the Zambezi River Basin," WIDER Working Paper Series 116, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Channing Arndt & Paul Chinowsky & Charles Fant & Sergey Paltsev & C. Adam Schlosser & Kenneth Strzepek & Finn Tarp & James Thurlow, 2019. "Climate change and developing country growth: the cases of Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 154(3), pages 335-349, June.
    4. Vafa Anvari & Channing Arndt & Faaiqa Hartley & Konstantin Makrelov & Kenneth Strezepek & Tim Thomas & Sherwin Gabriel & Bruno Merven, 2022. "AclimatechangemodellingframeworkforfinancialstresstestinginSouthernAfrica," Working Papers 11030, South African Reserve Bank.
    5. Channing Arndt & Paul S. Chinowsky & Charles Fant & Yohannes Gebretsadik & James E. Neumann & Sergey Paltsev & Adam Schlosser & Kenneth Strzepek & Finn Tarp & James Thurlow, 2015. "Climate change and developing country interests: Cases from the Zambezi River Basin," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2015-116, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    6. Gebretsadik, Yohannes & Strzepek, Kenneth & Schlosser, C. Adam, 2014. "A hybrid approach to incorporating climate change and variability into climate scenario for impact assessments," WIDER Working Paper Series 112, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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