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Regional Climate Change of the Greater Zambezi River Basin: A Hybrid Assessment

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  • Strzepek, Kenneth
  • Schlosser, C. Adam

Abstract

Projections of regional changes in seasonal surface-air temperature and precipitation for the eastern and western Zambezi River Basin regions are presented. These projections are cast in a probabilistic context based on a numerical hybridization technique of the MIT Integrated Global System Model. Unconstrained emissions send the majority of outcomes in spring precipitation to a drying by 2050, although the total distribution spans both precipitation increases and decreases. From climate policy, the distributions´ range collapse considerably and the distributions´ mode lies near zero precipitation change. For surface air temperature, the most notable effect of climate policy is to reduce the mode value of warming as well as the occurrence of the most extreme increases.

Suggested Citation

  • Strzepek, Kenneth & Schlosser, C. Adam, 2013. "Regional Climate Change of the Greater Zambezi River Basin: A Hybrid Assessment," WIDER Working Paper Series 040, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  • Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2013-040
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    File URL: https://www.wider.unu.edu/sites/default/files/WP2013-040.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Channing Arndt & Julia Kozlitina & Paul V. Preckel, 2006. "Efficient survey sampling of households via Gaussian quadrature," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 55(3), pages 355-364.
    2. Mort Webster & Andrei Sokolov & John Reilly & Chris Forest & Sergey Paltsev & Adam Schlosser & Chien Wang & David Kicklighter & Marcus Sarofim & Jerry Melillo & Ronald Prinn & Henry Jacoby, 2012. "Analysis of climate policy targets under uncertainty," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 112(3), pages 569-583, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Channing Arndt & Charles Fant & Sherman Robinson & Kenneth Strzepek, 2015. "Informed selection of future climates," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 130(1), pages 21-33, May.
    2. Raffaello Cervigni & Pasquale Lucio Scandizzo, 2017. "The Ocean Economy in Mauritius," World Bank Other Operational Studies 28562, The World Bank.
    3. Alton Theresa & Arndt Channing & Gebretsadik Yohannes & Hartley Faaiqa & Makrelov Konstantin & Strzepek Kenneth & Thurlow James & Schlosser C. Adam & Gabriel Sherwin & Cullis James & Cartwright Anton , 2015. "An Uncertainty Approach to Modelling Climate Change Risk in South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series 045, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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    Keywords

    Climatic changes; Economic forecasting; International economic relations;

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