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The Economic Costs of Climate Change: A Multi-Sector Impact Assessment for Vietnam

Author

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  • Arndt, Channing
  • Tarp, Finn
  • Thurlow, James

Abstract

Unlike existing studies, we adopt a multi-sectoral approach and consider the full range of climate projections. Biophysical damages are translated into economic costs using a dynamic economywide model. Our results for Vietnam indicate that the negative impacts on agriculture and roads are modest, at least until 2050. Larger costs are caused by rising sea levels and cyclone strikes. Overall, climate change is likely to reduce Vietnam´s national income by between one and two percent by 2050 (relative to a historical baseline). Damages double under more extreme projections. Our findings suggest that there are benefits from pre-emptive action, but also opportunity costs from precautionary adaptation investments.

Suggested Citation

  • Arndt, Channing & Tarp, Finn & Thurlow, James, 2012. "The Economic Costs of Climate Change: A Multi-Sector Impact Assessment for Vietnam," WIDER Working Paper Series 082, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  • Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2012-82
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    File URL: https://www.wider.unu.edu/sites/default/files/wp2012-082.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Strzepek, Kenneth & Strzepek, Niko & Schweikert, Amy E. & Chinowsky, Paul S., 2012. "Road Infrastructure and Climate Change in Vietnam," WIDER Working Paper Series 080, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    2. Paul Chinowsky & Channing Arndt, 2012. "Climate Change and Roads: A Dynamic Stressor–Response Model," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 448-462, August.
    3. World Bank, 2010. "Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change : Mozambique," World Bank Other Operational Studies 12748, The World Bank.
    4. James Thurlow & Paul Dorosh & Winston Yu, 2012. "A Stochastic Simulation Approach to Estimating the Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Bangladesh," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 412-428, August.
    5. Ravela, Sai & Verly, Caroleen & Ludwig, Lindsay C. & Neumann, James E. & Emanuel, Kerry A., 2012. "Risks of Coastal Storm Surge and the Effect of Sea Level Rise in the Red River Delta, Vietnam," WIDER Working Paper Series 081, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    6. World Bank, 2010. "Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change : Samoa," World Bank Other Operational Studies 12746, The World Bank.
    7. Neil Adger, W., 1999. "Social Vulnerability to Climate Change and Extremes in Coastal Vietnam," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 249-269, February.
    8. World Bank, 2010. "Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change : Ethiopia," World Bank Other Operational Studies 12504, The World Bank.
    9. Mendelsohn, Robert & Dinar, Ariel & Williams, Larry, 2006. "The distributional impact of climate change on rich and poor countries," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(02), pages 159-178, April.
    10. Arndt, Channing & Strzepeck, Kenneth & Tarp, Finn & Thurlow, James & Fant, Charles & Wright, Len, 2010. "Adapting to Climate Change An Integrated Biophysical and Economic Assessment for Mozambique," WIDER Working Paper Series 101, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    11. World Bank, 2010. "Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change : Vietnam," World Bank Other Operational Studies 12747, The World Bank.
    12. World Bank, 2010. "Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change : Synthesis Report," World Bank Other Operational Studies 12750, The World Bank.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Channing Arndt & Charles Fant & Sherman Robinson & Kenneth Strzepek, 2015. "Informed selection of future climates," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 130(1), pages 21-33, May.
    2. repec:unu:wpaper:wp2012-81 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Ravela, Sai & Verly, Caroleen & Ludwig, Lindsay C. & Neumann, James E. & Emanuel, Kerry A., 2012. "Risks of Coastal Storm Surge and the Effect of Sea Level Rise in the Red River Delta, Vietnam," WIDER Working Paper Series 081, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    4. Ji Guo & Hui Liu & Xianhua Wu & Jiong Gu & Shunfeng Song & Yinshan Tang, 2015. "Natural Disasters, Economic Growth and Sustainable Development in China―An Empirical Study Using Provincial Panel Data," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(12), pages 1-18, December.
    5. Valeria Costantini & Giorgia Sforna & Anil Markandya & Elena Paglialunga, 2017. "Impact And Distribution Of Climatic Damages: A Methodological Proposal With A Dynamic Cge Model Applied To Global Climate Negotiations," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0226, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    6. repec:unu:wpaper:wp2012-60 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Strzepek, Kenneth & Strzepek, Niko & Schweikert, Amy E. & Chinowsky, Paul S., 2012. "Road Infrastructure and Climate Change in Vietnam," WIDER Working Paper Series 080, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    8. repec:gam:jsusta:v:7:y:2015:i:12:p:16783-16800:d:60912 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:unu:wpaper:wp2012-80 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Raffaello Cervigni & Pasquale Lucio Scandizzo, 2017. "The Ocean Economy in Mauritius," World Bank Other Operational Studies 28562, The World Bank.
    11. repec:unu:wpaper:wp2012-79 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Paul S. Chinowsky & Amy E. Schweikert & Niko Strzepek & Kenneth Strzepek, 2015. "Road Infrastructure and Climate Change in Vietnam," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(5), pages 1-19, May.
    13. repec:spr:ediscc:v:1:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s41885-017-0010-5 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. James E. Neumann & Kerry A. Emanuel & Sai Ravela & Lindsay C. Ludwig & Caroleen Verly, 2015. "Risks of Coastal Storm Surge and the Effect of Sea Level Rise in the Red River Delta, Vietnam," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(6), pages 1-20, May.
    15. Wisdom Akpalu & Channing Arndt & Innocent Matshe, 2015. "Introduction to the Special Issue on the Economics of Climate Change Impacts on Developing Countries: Selected Studies on Sub-Saharan Africa and South-East Asia," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(9), pages 1-5, September.
    16. Fant, Charles & Gebretsadik, Yohannes & Strzepek, Kenneth, 2012. "Impact of Climate Change on Irrigation, Crops and Hydropower in Vietnam," WIDER Working Paper Series 079, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climatic changes; Econometric models; Economic aspects (Environment); Global warming;

    JEL classification:

    • Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics
    • Q0 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General
    • Q2 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation
    • Q3 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation
    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products

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