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Climate change and economic growth prospects for Malawi: An uncertainty approach

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  • Arndt, Channing
  • Schlosser, Adam
  • Strzepek, Kenneth

Abstract

Malawi confronts a development imperative in a context of rising temperatures and deep uncertainty about precipitation trends. We evaluate the implications of climate change for overall growth and development prospects to 2050. We focus on three impact channels: agriculture, road infrastructure, and hydropower generation while accounting explicitly for the uncertainty in climate forecasts. We find that climate change is unlikely to substantially slow overall economic growth over the next couple of decades. However, climate change implications become more pronounced over time and may become substantially more severe after 2050, especially if effective global mitigation policies fail to materialize.

Suggested Citation

  • Arndt, Channing & Schlosser, Adam & Strzepek, Kenneth, 2014. "Climate change and economic growth prospects for Malawi: An uncertainty approach," WIDER Working Paper Series 013, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  • Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2014-013
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John Quiggin & John Horowitz, 2003. "Costs of adjustment to climate change," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 47(4), pages 429-446, December.
    2. Channing Arndt & James Thurlow, 2015. "Climate uncertainty and economic development: evaluating the case of Mozambique to 2050," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 130(1), pages 63-75, May.
    3. Paul Chinowsky & Channing Arndt, 2012. "Climate Change and Roads: A Dynamic Stressor–Response Model," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 448-462, August.
    4. Shenggen Fan & Xiaobo Zhang, 2008. "Public Expenditure, Growth and Poverty Reduction in Rural Uganda," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 20(3), pages 466-496.
    5. Shenggen Fan & Peter Hazell, 2001. "Returns to Public Investments in the Less-Favored Areas of India and China," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1217-1222.
    6. repec:unu:wpaper:wp2012-65 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Pauw, Karl & Thurlow, James & Bachu, Murthy & Van Seventer, Dirk Ernst, 2011. "The economic costs of extreme weather events: a hydrometeorological CGE analysis for Malawi," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(02), pages 177-198, April.
    8. Paltsev, Sergey, 2012. "Implications of Alternative Mitigation Policies on World Prices for Fossil Fuels and Agricultural Products," WIDER Working Paper Series 065, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    9. John G. Fernald, 1999. "Roads to Prosperity? Assessing the Link between Public Capital and Productivity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 619-638, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. World Bank, 2016. "Malawi Urbanization Review," World Bank Other Operational Studies 24391, The World Bank.

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    Keywords

    Malawi; climate change; growth; development;

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