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Informed Selection of Future Climates

Author

Listed:
  • Channing Arndt
  • Charles Fant
  • Sherman Robinson
  • Kenneth Strzepek

Abstract

Analysis of climate change is often computationally burdensome. Here, we present an approach for intelligently selecting a sample of climates from a population of 6800 climates designed to represent the full distribution of likely climate outcomes out to 2050 for the Zambeze River Valley. Philosophically, our approach draws upon information theory. Technically, our approach draws upon the numerical integration literature and recent applications of Gaussian quadrature sampling. In our approach, future climates in the Zambeze River Valley are summarized in 12 variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Channing Arndt & Charles Fant & Sherman Robinson & Kenneth Strzepek, 2012. "Informed Selection of Future Climates," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2012-060, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    • Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2012-060
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    File URL: https://www.wider.unu.edu/sites/default/files/wp2012-060.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. DeVuyst, Eric A. & Preckel, Paul V., 1997. "Sensitivity analysis revisited: A quadrature-based approach," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 175-185, April.
    2. Channing Arndt & Finn Tarp & James Thurlow, 2015. "The Economic Costs of Climate Change: A Multi-Sector Impact Assessment for Vietnam," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-15, April.
    3. Judge,George G. & Mittelhammer,Ron C., 2012. "An Information Theoretic Approach to Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521689731, October.
    4. Channing Arndt & Finn Tarp & James Thurlow, 2015. "The Economic Costs of Climate Change: A Multi-Sector Impact Assessment for Vietnam," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(4), pages 1-15, April.
    5. World Bank, 2010. "Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change : Synthesis Report," World Bank Publications - Reports 12750, The World Bank Group.
    6. Judge,George G. & Mittelhammer,Ron C., 2012. "An Information Theoretic Approach to Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521869591, October.
    7. Strzepek, Kenneth & Schlosser, C. Adam, 2013. "Regional Climate Change of the Greater Zambezi River Basin: A Hybrid Assessment," WIDER Working Paper Series 040, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    8. Adam Schlosser & Kenneth Strzepek, 2013. "Regional Climate Change of the Greater Zambezi River Basin: A Hybrid Assessment," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2013-040, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    9. repec:unu:wpaper:wp2012-082 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Channing Arndt & Paul S. Chinowsky & Charles Fant & Yohannes Gebretsadik & James E. Neumann & Sergey Paltsev & Adam Schlosser & Kenneth Strzepek & Finn Tarp & James Thurlow, 2015. "Climate change and developing country interests: Cases from the Zambezi River Basin," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2015-116, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    2. Channing Arndt & Paul Chinowsky & Charles Fant & Sergey Paltsev & C. Adam Schlosser & Kenneth Strzepek & Finn Tarp & James Thurlow, 2019. "Climate change and developing country growth: the cases of Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 154(3), pages 335-349, June.
    3. Vafa Anvari & Channing Arndt & Faaiqa Hartley & Konstantin Makrelov & Kenneth Strezepek & Tim Thomas & Sherwin Gabriel & Bruno Merven, 2022. "AclimatechangemodellingframeworkforfinancialstresstestinginSouthernAfrica," Working Papers 11030, South African Reserve Bank.
    4. Yohannes Gebretsadik & Kenneth Strzepek & Adam Schlosser, 2014. "A Hybrid Approach to Incorporating Climate Change and Variability into Climate Scenario for Impact Assessments," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2014-112, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    5. Channing Arndt & Paul Chinowsky & Charles Fant & Yohannes Gebretsadik & James E. Neumann & Sergey Paltsev & C. Adam Schlosser & Kenneth Strzepek & Finn Tarp & James Thurlow, 2015. "Climate change and developing country interests: Cases from the Zambezi River Basin," WIDER Working Paper Series 116, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    6. Gebretsadik, Yohannes & Strzepek, Kenneth & Schlosser, C. Adam, 2014. "A hybrid approach to incorporating climate change and variability into climate scenario for impact assessments," WIDER Working Paper Series 112, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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    Keywords

    Climate change; Global warming; Information theory in finance; Sampling (Statistics);
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