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A sequential approach to integrated energy modeling in South Africa

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  • Arndt, Channing
  • Davies, Rob
  • Gabriel, Sherwin
  • Makrelov, Konstantin
  • Merven, Bruno
  • Hartley, Faaiqa
  • Thurlow, James

Abstract

We develop a sequential approach to link a bottom-up energy sector model to a detailed dynamic general equilibrium model of South Africa. The approach is designed to simultaneously address the shortcomings and maintain the attractive features of detailed energy sector and general equilibrium models. It also reflects common country-level energy planning processes. We illustrate the capabilities of this integrated bottom-up approach by analyzing the implications of (i) a carbon tax, (ii) liberalization of import supply restrictions in order to exploit regional hydropower potential, and (iii) a combined policy where both carbon taxes and import liberalization are pursued. For the combined scenario, our results suggest substantial emissions reductions relative to Baseline at essentially no cost to economic growth but about a one percent reduction in employment. We conclude that a regional energy strategy, anchored in hydropower, represents a potentially inexpensive approach to decarbonizing the South African economy. The strategy also has political economy attractions in that the combined approach reduces the burden of adjustment of politically sensitive sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Arndt, Channing & Davies, Rob & Gabriel, Sherwin & Makrelov, Konstantin & Merven, Bruno & Hartley, Faaiqa & Thurlow, James, 2016. "A sequential approach to integrated energy modeling in South Africa," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 591-599.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:161:y:2016:i:c:p:591-599
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.06.053
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Böhringer, Christoph & Rutherford, Thomos F., 2009. "Integrated assessment of energy policies: Decomposing top-down and bottom-up," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1648-1661, September.
    2. Alton, Theresa & Arndt, Channing & Davies, Rob & Hartley, Faaiqa & Makrelov, Konstantin & Thurlow, James & Ubogu, Dumebi, 2014. "Introducing carbon taxes in South Africa," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 344-354.
    3. Lanz, Bruno & Rausch, Sebastian, 2011. "General equilibrium, electricity generation technologies and the cost of carbon abatement: A structural sensitivity analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1035-1047, September.
    4. Inglesi, Roula, 2010. "Aggregate electricity demand in South Africa: Conditional forecasts to 2030," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 197-204, January.
    5. Resnick, Danielle & Tarp, Finn & Thurlow, James, 2012. "The Political Economy of Green Growth: Illustrations from Southern Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series 011, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    6. Alton Theresa & Arndt Channing & Gebretsadik Yohannes & Hartley Faaiqa & Makrelov Konstantin & Strzepek Kenneth & Thurlow James & Schlosser C. Adam & Gabriel Sherwin & Cullis James & Cartwright Anton , 2015. "An Uncertainty Approach to Modelling Climate Change Risk in South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series 045, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    7. Channing Arndt & Rob Davies & Konstantin Makrelov & James Thurlow, 2013. "Measuring the Carbon Intensity of the South African Economy," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 81(3), pages 393-415, September.
    8. Danielle Resnick & Finn Tarp & James Thurlow, 2012. "The Political Economy Of Green Growth: Cases From Southern Africa," Public Administration & Development, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 215-228, August.
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    1. repec:eee:rensus:v:74:y:2017:i:c:p:1189-1209 is not listed on IDEAS

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