Can Global De-Carbonization Inhibit Developing Country Industrialization?
Most economic analyses of climate change have focused on the aggregate impact on countries of mitigation actions. We depart first in disaggregating the impact by sector, focusing particularly on manufacturing output and exports. Second, we decompose the impact of a modest agreement on emissions reductions—17 percent relative to 2005 levels by 2020 for industrial countries and 17 percent relative to business-as-usual for developing countries—into three components: the change in the price of carbon due to each country's emission cuts per se; the further change in this price due to emissions tradability; and the changes due to any international transfers (private and public). Manufacturing output and exports in low carbon intensity countries such as Brazil are less affected. In contrast, in high carbon intensity countries, such as China and India, even a modest agreement depresses manufacturing output by 3–3.5 percent and manufacturing exports by 5.5–7 percent. The increase in the carbon price induced by emissions tradability hurts manufacturing output most while the real exchange rate effects of transfers hurt exports most. Copyright 2012, Oxford University Press.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 26 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Oxford University Press, Great Clarendon Street, Oxford OX2 6DP, UK|
Phone: (202) 477-1234
Fax: 01865 267 985
Web page: http://wber.oxfordjournals.org/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.oup.co.uk/journals|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ayhan Kose & Kenneth Rogoff & Eswar S Prasad & Shang-Jin Wei, 2003. "Effects of Financial Globalization on Developing Countries; Some Empirical Evidence," IMF Occasional Papers 220, International Monetary Fund.
- Jean-Pierre Ponssard & Neil Walker, 2008.
"EU Emissions Trading and the cement sector: a spatial competition analysis,"
- Jean Pierre Ponssard & Neil Walker, 2008. "EU emissions trading and the cement sector: a spatial competition analysis," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(5), pages 467-493, September.
- Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2008.
"Aid and Growth: What Does the Cross-Country Evidence Really Show?,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 643-665, November.
- Raghuram Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2005. "Aid and Growth; What Does the Cross-Country Evidence Really Show?," IMF Working Papers 05/127, .
- Raghuram G. Rajan, 2005. "Aid and Growth: What Does The Cross-Country Evidence Really Show?," Working Papers id:54, eSocialSciences.
- Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2005. "Aid and Growth: What Does the Cross-Country Evidence Really Show?," NBER Working Papers 11513, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Thierry Tressel & Alessandro Prati, 2006. "Aid Volatility and Dutch Disease; Is There a Role for Macroeconomic Policies?," IMF Working Papers 06/145, .
- Peterson, Everett B. & Schleich, Joachim, 2007. "Economic and environmental effects of border tax adjustments," Working Papers "Sustainability and Innovation" S1/2007, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI).
- Eric Werker & Faisal Z. Ahmed & Charles Cohen, 2009. "How Is Foreign Aid Spent? Evidence from a Natural Experiment," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 225-244, July.
- Gary Clyde Hufbauer & Steve Charnovitz & Jisun Kim, 2009. "Global Warming and the World Trading System," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 4280, 03.
- Stephen Knack, 2001. "Aid Dependence and the Quality of Governance: Cross-Country Empirical Tests," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 68(2), pages 310-329, October.
- William R. Cline, 2007. "Global Warming and Agriculture: Impact Estimates by Country," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 4037, 03.
- Easterly, William, 2007. "The White Man's Burden: Why the West's Efforts to Aid the Rest Have Done So Much Ill And So Little Good," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199226115.
- Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685, November.
- Strand, Jon, 2009. ""Revenue management"effects related to financial flows generated by climate policy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5053, The World Bank.
- Manne, Alan & Mendelsohn, Robert & Richels, Richard, 1995. "MERGE : A model for evaluating regional and global effects of GHG reduction policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 17-34, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:wbecrv:v:26:y:2012:i:2:p:296-319. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Oxford University Press)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.