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Can Global De-Carbonization Inhibit Developing-Country Industrialization?

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  • Aaditya Mattoo
  • Arvind Subramanian
  • Dominique van der Mensbrugghe
  • Jianwu He

Abstract

Most economic analyses of climate change have focused on the aggregate impact on countries of mitigation actions. We depart first in disaggregating the impact by sector, focusing particularly on manufacturing output and exports because of the potential growth consequences. Second, we decompose the impact of an agreement on emissions reductions into three components: the change in the price of carbon due to each country’s emission cuts per se; the further change in this price due to emissions tradability; and the changes due to any international transfers (private and public). Manufacturing output and exports in low carbon intensity countries such as Brazil are not adversely affected. In contrast, in high carbon intensity countries, such as China and India, even a modest agreement depresses manufacturing output by 6-7 percent and manufacturing exports by 9-11 percent. The increase in the carbon price induced by emissions tradability hurts manufacturing output most while the Dutch disease effects of transfers hurt exports most. If the growth costs of these structural changes are judged to be substantial, the current policy consensus, which favors emissions tradability (on efficiency grounds) supplemented with financial transfers (on equity grounds), needs re-consideration.

Suggested Citation

  • Aaditya Mattoo & Arvind Subramanian & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe & Jianwu He, 2009. "Can Global De-Carbonization Inhibit Developing-Country Industrialization?," Working Papers 188, Center for Global Development.
  • Handle: RePEc:cgd:wpaper:188
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    2. Pauline Lacour & Jean-Christophe Simon, 2012. "Les avancées du Mécanisme de Développement Propre : une étape décisive vers un développement "décarboné" au Sud ?," Post-Print halshs-00713067, HAL.
    3. Lorenza Campagnolo & Carlo Carraro & Marinella Davide & Fabio Eboli & Elisa Lanzi & Ramiro Parrado, 2016. "Can climate policy enhance sustainability?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(3), pages 639-653, August.
    4. Anderson, Kym, 2022. "Trade-related food policies in a more volatile climate and trade environment," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    5. van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2013. "Modeling the Global Economy – Forward-Looking Scenarios for Agriculture," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 933-994, Elsevier.
    6. Onder, Harun, 2012. "Trade and Climate Change: An Analytical Review of Key Issues," World Bank - Economic Premise, The World Bank, issue 86, pages 1-8, August.
    7. Camila Agudelo-Rivera & Clark Granger-Castaño & Andrés Sánchez-Jabba, 2022. "The Expected Effects of Climate Change on Colombia’s Current Account," Borradores de Economia 1214, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    8. Wanissa Suanin, 2021. "Demand Elasticity of Processed Food Exports from Developing Countries: A Panel Analysis of US Imports," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(2), pages 413-429, June.
    9. Mori-Clement, Yadira & Bednar-Friedl, Birgit, 2019. "Do Clean Development Mechanism Projects Generate Local Employment? Testing for Sectoral Effects across Brazilian Municipalities," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 47-60.
    10. Yadira Mori Clement & Birgit Bednar-Friedl, 2017. "Do Clean Development Mechanism projects generate local employment? Testing for sectoral effects across Brazilian municipalities," Graz Economics Papers 2017-05, University of Graz, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    trade; environment; climate change; emissions trading;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F18 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Environment
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

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