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The Global Financial Crisis, LDC Exports and Welfare: Analysis with a World Trade Model

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  • Dirk WILLENBOCKEL
  • Sherman ROBINSON

Abstract

Changes in international trade flows and world prices are major channels through which the global financial crisis will hit developing countries. The recession in the "global North" triggered by the financial crisis and the resulting slowdown of growth in China and other major emerging economies will generate declines in demand for exports from developing countries, along with a reversal of the beneficial terms-of-trade trends that have favoured net exporters of primary commodities over the last few years. How these trade shocks and terms-of-trade trends affect economic performance and welfare in low-income countries depends on country-specific characteristics and requires a differentiated analysis across countries. This study uses a multi-region computable general equilibrium (CGE) world trade model to gauge the impact of a slowdown in economic activity in the OECD on trade performance, world prices, and aggregate welfare in the rest of the world with a particular focus on the least developed countries (LDCs) in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia. The results of the simulation analysis indicate the degree of vulnerability of different developing countries and regions distinguished in the model to impacts arising from the recession via the trade channel.
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  • Dirk WILLENBOCKEL & Sherman ROBINSON, "undated". "The Global Financial Crisis, LDC Exports and Welfare: Analysis with a World Trade Model," EcoMod2009 21500091, EcoMod.
  • Handle: RePEc:ekd:000215:21500091
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Osman, Rehab Osman Mohamed, 2012. "The EU Economic Partnership Agreements with Southern Africa: a computable general equilibrium analysis," Economics PhD Theses 0412, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    2. Joseph F. Francois & Julia Wörz, 2010. "Trade, Economic Structure and the Great Recession: The Example of Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 67-72.
    3. Joseph Francois & Mario Holzner & Olga Pindyuk, 2011. "Austrian Linkages to the European Economy and the Transmission Mechanisms of Economic Crisis," FIW Research Reports series III-006, FIW.
    4. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Yvan Decreux & Lionel Fontagné & David Khoudour-Castéras, 2009. "Economic Crisis and Global Supply Chains," Working Papers 2009-15, CEPII research center.
    5. Debapriya Bhattacharya & Khondaker Golam Moazzem, 2013. "Least Developed Countries (LDCs) in the Global Value Chain (GVC): Trends, Determinants and Challenges," CPD Working Paper 104, Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD).

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    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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