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Asian Growth and Trade Poles: India, China, and East and Southeast Asia

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  • McDonald, Scott
  • Robinson, Sherman
  • Thierfelder, Karen

Abstract

Using a new global general equilibrium trade model, this paper analyses the impact on the global economy, especially developing countries, of the dramatic expansion of trade by India, China, and an integrated East and Southeast (E&SE) Asia trade bloc. While both India and China are very large economies, the two “Asian Drivers” differ in economic structures and trade patterns. China is an integral member of the E&SE Asia bloc, with strong links through value chains and trade in intermediate inputs, while India is not part of any trade bloc. The analysis considers the importance of their different degrees of integration into regional and global economies, focusing on potential complementarities and competition with other developing countries.

Suggested Citation

  • McDonald, Scott & Robinson, Sherman & Thierfelder, Karen, 2007. "Asian Growth and Trade Poles: India, China, and East and Southeast Asia," Conference papers 331589, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:331589
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Scott McDonald & Sherman Robinson & Karen Thierfelder, 2007. "Globe: A SAM Based Global CGE Model using GTAP Data," Departmental Working Papers 14, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics.
    2. Andrea Goldstein & Nicolas Pinaud & Helmut Reisen, 2006. "The Rise of China and India: What's in it for Africa?," OECD Development Centre Policy Insights 19, OECD Publishing.
    3. Lee, Jong-Wha & Shin, Kwanho, 2006. "Does regionalism lead to more global trade integration in East Asia?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 283-301, December.
    4. Lewis, Jeffrey D. & Robinson, Sherman & Wang, Zhi, 1995. "Beyond the Uruguay Round: The implications of an Asian free trade area," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 35-90.
    5. Jaime de MELO & Sherman ROBINSON, 2015. "Product Differentiation And The Treatment Of Foreign Trade In Computable General Equilibrium Models Of Small Economies," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Modeling Developing Countries' Policies in General Equilibrium, chapter 2, pages 21-41, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Jong‐Wha Lee & Innwon Park, 2005. "Free Trade Areas in East Asia: Discriminatory or Non‐discriminatory?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(1), pages 21-48, January.
    7. McDonald, Scott & Thierfelder, Karen, 2004. "Deriving A Global Social Accounting Matrix From Gtap Versions 5 And 6 Data," Technical Papers 28716, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    8. Agata Antkiewicz & John Whalley, 2005. "China's New Regional Trade Agreements," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(10), pages 1539-1557, October.
    9. World Bank, 2005. "Global Economic Prospects 2005 : Trade, Regionalism and Development," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 14783, December.
    10. Devaragan, Shantayanan & Lewis, Jeffrey D. & Robinson, Sherman, 1990. "Policy lessons from trade-focused, two-sector models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 625-657.
    11. Robinson, Sherman & Burfisher, Mary E. & Hinojosa-Ojeda, Raul & Thierfelder, Karen E., 1993. "Agricultural policies and migration in a U.S.-Mexico free trade area: A computable general equilibrium analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 15(5-6), pages 673-701.
    12. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Lewis, Jeffrey & Robinson, Sherman, 1990. "Policy Lessons from Two-Sector Models," CUDARE Working Papers 198566, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    13. McDonald, Scott & Karen Thierfelder, 2004. "Deriving a Global Social Accounting Matrix from GTAP Versions 5 and 6 Data," GTAP Technical Papers 1645, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    14. Baysan, Tercan & Panagariya, Arvind & Pitigala, Nihal, 2006. "Preferential trading in South Asia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3813, The World Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dirk WILLENBOCKEL & Sherman ROBINSON, "undated". "The Global Financial Crisis, LDC Exports and Welfare: Analysis with a World Trade Model," EcoMod2009 21500092, EcoMod.
    2. Deepak Kumar & Shubham Kumar & Keya Sengupta & Tapas K. Giri, 2022. "Examining the Role of Policy and Cultural Determinants on Sectoral Export Competitiveness: Evidences from India," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 23(3), pages 694-709, June.
    3. Çakır, Mustafa Yavuz & Kabundi, Alain, 2013. "Trade shocks from BRIC to South Africa: A global VAR analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 190-202.
    4. Nakhoda, Aadil, 2013. "The impact of the exports of BRIC countries plus Turkey on the exports of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 52477, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Dirk WILLENBOCKEL & Scott MCDONALD, 2008. "India, Brazil, South Africa and China: Is the South Big Enough?," EcoMod2008 23800154, EcoMod.
    6. Haita, Corina, 2011. "An Emissions Trading Scheme with Auctioning," Conference papers 332086, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    7. Pierluigi Montalbano & Silvia Nenci, 2011. "Are the Emerging Economies a Threat to the Italian Competitiveness?," QA - Rivista dell'Associazione Rossi-Doria, Associazione Rossi Doria, issue 4, December.
    8. Dixon, Peter B. & Honkatukia, Juha & Rimmer, Maureen T., 2011. "The marginal costs of funds in the VATTAGE model of Finland: a back of the envelope justification of the welfare effects of additional government revenue," Conference papers 332135, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    9. Betina Dimaranan & Elena Ianchovichina & Will Martin, 2009. "How will growth in China and India affect the world economy?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(3), pages 551-571, October.
    10. Jing Wang & Dana Medianu & John Whalley, 2011. "The Contribution of China, India and Brazil to Narrowing North-South Differences in GDP/capita, World Trade Shares, and Market Capitalization," NBER Working Papers 17681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. repec:pra:mprapa:15377 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Pierluigi Montalbano & Silvia Nenci, 2014. "The Trade Competitiveness of Southern Emerging Economies: A Multidimensional Approach Through Cluster Analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(6), pages 783-810, June.
    13. Miria Pigato, 2009. "Strengthening China's and India's Trade and Investment Ties to the Middle East and North Africa," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2626, December.
    14. Osman, Rehab Osman Mohamed, 2012. "The EU Economic Partnership Agreements with Southern Africa: a computable general equilibrium analysis," Economics PhD Theses 0412, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    15. Hadhri, Sinda, 2023. "News-based economic policy uncertainty and financial contagion: An international evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 63-76.
    16. Soumali Bose & Bindya Kohli, 2018. "Study of FDI Trends and Patterns in BRICS Economies during the Period 1990–2015," Emerging Economy Studies, International Management Institute, vol. 4(1), pages 78-101, May.
    17. Junqian Xu & Yong Liu & Liling Yang, 2018. "A Comparative Study of the Role of China and India in Sustainable Textile Competition in the U.S. Market under Green Trade Barriers," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-21, April.
    18. Kakali Mukhopadhyay & Paul J. Thomassin & Debesh Chakraborty, 2012. "Economic Impact of Freer Trade in Latin America and the Caribbean: A GTAP Analysis," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 49(2), pages 147-183, November.
    19. Fedoseeva, Svetlana & Zeidan, Rodrigo, 2016. "A dead-end tunnel or the light at the end of it: The role of BRICs in European exports," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 237-248.
    20. Karov, Vuko & Roberts, Donna & Grant, Jason H. & Peterson, Everett, 2009. "An Empirical Assessment of Phytosanitary Regulations on US Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Imports," Conference papers 331832, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

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