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Climate Change, Agricultural Productivity and its Impacts on the Food Industry: A General Equilibrium Analysis

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  • Ludena, Carlos E.
  • Mejia, Carla

Abstract

This paper analyses the impacts of climate change of food processing sectors worldwide. Specifically, we analyze the impacts that changes in agricultural productivity might have for seven food industry sectors, namely meat, vegetable oils and fats, dairy, sugar, processed rice, other food products and beverage and tobacco products. We analyze two different scenarios of crops yield changes based on Müller et al. (2009), one with full CO2 fertilization and one without CO2 fertilization. We use a general equilibrium approach, given the advantages that this methodology provides for worldwide analysis of productivity and its impacts on production, trade and prices of primary agriculture, and ultimately, food processing sectors. We use the GTAP computable general model with version 7 of the GTAP database, with a base year of 2004. We aggregate this database into 10 regions and 12 sectors, with special emphasis on food processing sectors. The results show that overall, the impacts on food processing depends whether we consider CO2 fertilization or not.

Suggested Citation

  • Ludena, Carlos E. & Mejia, Carla, 2012. "Climate Change, Agricultural Productivity and its Impacts on the Food Industry: A General Equilibrium Analysis," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126851, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:iaae12:126851
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.126851
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nelson, Gerald C. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Koo, Jawoo & Robertson, Richard & Sulser, Timothy & Zhu, Tingju & Ringler, Claudia & Msangi, Siwa & Palazzo, Amanda & Batka, Miroslav & Magalhaes, Marilia & Va, 2009. "Climate change: Impact on agriculture and costs of adaptation," Food policy reports 21, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Pushpam Kumar & Uwe A. Schneider, 2008. "Greenhouse gas emission mitigation through agriculture," Working Papers FNU-155, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Feb 2008.
    3. World Bank, 2010. "World Development Report 2010," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 4387, December.
    4. Burniaux, Jean-Marc & Truong Truong, 2002. "GTAP-E: An Energy-Environmental Version of the GTAP Model," GTAP Technical Papers 923, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    5. William R. Cline, 2007. "Global Warming and Agriculture: Impact Estimates by Country," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 4037, October.
    6. Burniaux, Jean-March & Truong, Truong P., 2002. "Gtap-E: An Energy-Environmental Version Of The Gtap Model," Technical Papers 28705, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    7. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685, December.
    8. Schneider, Uwe A. & Kumar, Pushpam, 2008. "Greenhouse Gas Mitigation through Agriculture," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 23(1), pages 1-5.
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    1. Andersen, Lykke E. & Breisinger, Clemens & Mason d'Croz, Daniel & Jemio, Luis Carlos & Ringler, Claudia & Robertson, Richard D. & Verner, Dorte & Wiebelt, Manfred, 2014. "Agriculture, incomes, and gender in Latin America by 2050: An assessment of climate change impacts and household resilience for Brazil, Mexico, and Peru:," IFPRI discussion papers 1390, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

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    Keywords

    Crop Production/Industries; Production Economics;

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