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Improving Land-use modelling within CGE to assess Forest-based Mitigation Potential and Costs

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  • Michetti, Melania
  • Parrado, Ramiro

Abstract

We present a computable general equilibrium model properly modified to analyse the potential role of the European forestry sector within climate mitigation. Improvements on database and modelling frameworks allow accounting for land heterogeneity across and within regions and for land transfers between agriculture, grazing, and forestry. The forestry sector has been modified to track carbon mitigation potential from both intensive and extensive forest margins, which have been calibrated according to a forest sectoral model. Two sets of climate policies are simulated. In a first scenario, Europe is assumed to commit unilaterally to reduce CO2 emissions by 20% and 30%, by 2020. In a second scenario, in addition to the emissions quotas, progressively higher forest sequestration subsidies are paid to European firms to foster the implementation of forestry practices. Results show that including forest carbon in the compliance strategy decreases European policy costs and carbon price, while it does not lead to significant reductions in carbon leakage. We conclude that while European forests can reinforce other mitigation measures, their contribution as a stand-alone abatement strategy results insufficient to comply with emissions reduction targets. Additionally, carbon sinks provided by European temperate forests do not offer considerable mitigation potential if compared with other forest biomes around the world. A much higher forest mitigation would require other regions to take part in a climate stabilization agreement, especially those where old-growth forests exist.

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  • Michetti, Melania & Parrado, Ramiro, 2012. "Improving Land-use modelling within CGE to assess Forest-based Mitigation Potential and Costs," Climate Change and Sustainable Development 122862, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:feemcl:122862
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.122862
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    Cited by:

    1. Bosello, Francesco & Marangoni, Giacomo & Orecchia, Carlo & Raitzer, David A. & Tavoni, Massimo, 2016. "The Cost of Climate Stabilization in Southeast Asia, a Joint Assessment with Dynamic Optimization and CGE Models," MITP: Mitigation, Innovation and Transformation Pathways 251810, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    2. Bosello, Francesco & Orecchia, Carlo & Parrado, Ramiro, 2013. "The additional contribution of non-CO2 mitigation in climate policy costs and efforts in Europe," Conference papers 332363, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    3. Melania Michetti & Matteo Zampieri, 2014. "Climate–Human–Land Interactions: A Review of Major Modelling Approaches," Land, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-41, July.
    4. Francesco Bosello & Carlo Orecchia & David A. Raitzer, 2016. "Decarbonization Pathways in Southeast Asia: New Results for Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam," Working Papers 2016.75, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Environmental Economics and Policy;

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • Q23 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Forestry
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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