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EU Emissions Trading and the cement sector: a spatial competition analysis

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  • Jean-Pierre Ponssard

    () (Department of Economics, Ecole Polytechnique - X - École polytechnique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Neil Walker

Abstract

An oligopoly competition model is described and used to illustrate the potential effect of EU emissions trading and transport issues on the production decisions and profitability of cement producers in a typical western European country market. The role of geography is introduced from three viewpoints: the existence of regional markets, the fact that EU producers may operate multiple plants across these regions, and the possibility of production capacity constraints. A typical EU state is divided into a coastal region which is initially exposed to international competition, and an inland region which is initially protected. Assuming pure auctioning of EU Allowances and a range of CO 2 prices up to €50/t, our model predicts a large increase of imports into the coastal region. Consequences for the inland producers include reduced attractiveness of the coastal market, as well as increased competition from coastal producers and from non-EU imports. The model includes a number of simplifications and therefore does not claim to offer definitive predictions, but our results do suggest that an increase in non-EU imports could feasibly offset more than 70% of the decrease in EU cement sector emissions. The likely impact on producer profits is considered for each region, and the advantages and disadvantages of potential mitigating policy measures are reviewed for either the EU Allowance allocation process or border adjustments on cement products.
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Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Pierre Ponssard & Neil Walker, 2008. "EU Emissions Trading and the cement sector: a spatial competition analysis," Post-Print hal-00332053, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00332053
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00332053
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    as
    1. Cameron Hepburn & John Quah & Robert Ritz, 2006. "Emissions Trading and Profit-Neutral Grandfathering," Economics Series Working Papers 295, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    2. Karsten Neuhoff & Kim Keats Martinez & Misato Sato, 2006. "Allocation, incentives and distortions: the impact of EU ETS emissions allowance allocations to the electricity sector," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 73-91, January.
    3. Hervé Dumez & Alain Jeunemaitre, 2000. "Understanding and Regulating the Market at a Time of Globalization : The Case of the Cement Industry," Post-Print hal-00262506, HAL.
    4. Gernot Klepper & Sonja Peterson, 2004. "The EU Emissions Trading Scheme. Allowance Prices, Trade Flows, Competitiveness Effects," Working Papers 2004.49, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
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