IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdr/borrec/961.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Bonanzas y crisis de la actividad petrolera y su efecto sobre la economía colombiana

Author

Listed:

Abstract

Este documento describe la importancia del petróleo en la economía colombiana y cuantifica su impacto sobre la deuda del gobierno, la tasa de cambio real y la actividad económica en los últimos treinta años. El trabajo resulta útil por la importancia histórica del petróleo y por el impacto macroeconómico que ocasionó la caída reciente del precio internacional del crudo. Para el ejercicio empírico se utiliza una metodología de Vectores Autoregresivos con parámetros cambiantes en el tiempo, VAR-PCT, la cual supone que la relación entre los precios y/o la producción de petróleo con las variables macroeconómicas cambia dinámicamente. Los resultados confirman que hay diferentes patrones de volatilidad estocástica de las variables incluidas en el modelo. De acuerdo con las funciones impulso respuesta, los choques positivos al precio del petróleo no causaron efectos significativos sobre la tasa de cambio real, excepto en 2004, cuando se observó una apreciación real. No obstante, para enero de 2015, un choque negativo al precio del 10% generaría una depreciación real de aproximadamente 8%. Así mismo, un choque positivo al precio no afectaría la deuda del gobierno ni en junio de 1999 ni en enero de 2007. Sin embargo, un choque negativo al precio en enero de 2015 del 10% reflejaría un aumento de la deuda anual hasta de 8.9%.

Suggested Citation

  • Ligia Alba Melo-Becerra & Jorge Enrique Ramos-Forero & Ligia Marcela Parrado-Galvis & Hector Manuel Zarate-Solano, 2016. "Bonanzas y crisis de la actividad petrolera y su efecto sobre la economía colombiana," Borradores de Economia 961, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:961
    DOI: 10.32468/be.961
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.32468/be.961
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.32468/be.961?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Baffes & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge & Marc Stocker, 2015. "The Great Plunge in Oil Prices: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1504, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    2. Jorge Toro & Aar�n Garavito & David Camilo L�pez & Enrique Montes, 2015. "El choque petrolero y sus implicaciones en la econom�a colombiana," Borradores de Economia 13829, Banco de la Republica.
    3. Nakajima, Jouchi & Kasuya, Munehisa & Watanabe, Toshiaki, 2011. "Bayesian analysis of time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model for the Japanese economy and monetary policy," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 225-245, September.
    4. Chow, Gregory C & Lin, An-loh, 1971. "Best Linear Unbiased Interpolation, Distribution, and Extrapolation of Time Series by Related Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(4), pages 372-375, November.
    5. Marco Del Negro & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2015. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy: A Corrigendum," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(4), pages 1342-1345.
    6. Massimiliano Marcellino & Christian Schumacher, 2010. "Factor MIDAS for Nowcasting and Forecasting with Ragged‐Edge Data: A Model Comparison for German GDP," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(4), pages 518-550, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Joaquín Bernal-Ramírez & Jair Ojeda-Joya & Camila Agudelo-Rivera & Felipe Clavijo-Ram�rez & Carolina Durana-�ngel & Clark Granger-Casta�o & Daniel Osorio-Rodr�guez & Daniel Parra-Amado, 2022. "Impacto macroeconómico del cambio climático en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, issue 102, pages 1-62.
    2. Hern√°n Carvajal, 2023. "Efectos de la suspensi√≥n de las aspersiones a√©reas con glifosato sobre la deserci√≥n escolar en Colombia," Documentos CEDE 20307, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    3. Astrid Martínez Ortiz & Martha Elena Delgado, 2021. "Los retos del grupo Ecopetrol y del país frente a la transición energética," Informes de Investigación 20227, Fedesarrollo.
    4. Carlos Mauro Cárdenas Cardona & Juan Camilo Galvis Ciro, 2020. "La comunicación fiscal y sus efectos sobre los retornos de los títulos públicos: una aproximación empírica para el caso colombiano," Ensayos de Economía 18309, Universidad Nacional de Colombia Sede Medellín.
    5. Julio-Román, Juan Manuel & Gamboa-Estrada, Fredy Alejandro, 2019. "The Exchange Rate and Oil Prices in Colombia: A High Frequency Analysis," Working papers 22, Red Investigadores de Economía.
    6. Camila Agudelo-Rivera & Clark Granger-Castaño & Andrés Sánchez-Jabba, 2022. "The Expected Effects of Climate Change on Colombia’s Current Account," Borradores de Economia 1214, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    7. José Mauricio Gil León & Daniel Eduardo Silva-Pinz�n, 2019. "Índice de incertidumbre de política económica (EPU) para Colombia, 2000-2017," Ensayos de Economía 18198, Universidad Nacional de Colombia Sede Medellín.
    8. Neville Francis & Sergio Restrepo-Angel, 2018. "Sectoral and aggregate response to oil price shocks in the Colombian economy: SVAR and Local Projections approach," Borradores de Economia 1055, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    9. Joaquín Bernal-Ramírez & Jair Ojeda-Joya & Camila Agudelo-Rivera & Felipe Clavijo-Ram�rez & Carolina Durana-�ngel & Clark Granger-Casta�o & Daniel Osorio-Rodr�guez & Daniel Parra-Amado, 2022. "Impacto macroeconómico del cambio climático en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, issue 102, pages 1-62.
    10. Pareja Vasseur, Julián. DBA & Prada Sánchez, Marcela & Moreno Escobar, Martha, 2019. "Volatilidad en Opciones Reales: Revisión Literaria y un Caso de Aplicación en el Sector Petrolero Colombiano || Real Options Volatility: Literature Review and a Case of Application in the Colombian Oi," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 27(1), pages 136-155, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Toparlı, Elif Akay & Çatık, Abdurrahman Nazif & Balcılar, Mehmet, 2019. "The impact of oil prices on the stock returns in Turkey: A TVP-VAR approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 535(C).
    2. João C. Claudio & Katja Heinisch & Oliver Holtemöller, 2020. "Nowcasting East German GDP growth: a MIDAS approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 29-54, January.
    3. Jin‐Yu Chen & Xue‐Hong Zhu & Mei‐Rui Zhong, 2021. "Time‐varying effects and structural change of oil price shocks on industrial output: Evidence from China's oil industrial chain," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 3460-3472, July.
    4. Olawale Awe O. & Adedayo Adepoju A., 2018. "Modified Recursive Bayesian Algorithm For Estimating Time-Varying Parameters In Dynamic Linear Models," Statistics in Transition New Series, Statistics Poland, vol. 19(2), pages 258-293, June.
    5. Jebabli, Ikram & Arouri, Mohamed & Teulon, Frédéric, 2014. "On the effects of world stock market and oil price shocks on food prices: An empirical investigation based on TVP-VAR models with stochastic volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 66-98.
    6. Chen, Yufeng & Yang, Shuo, 2021. "Time-varying effect of international iron ore price on China’s inflation: A complete price chain with TVP-SVAR-SV model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    7. Lin, Boqiang & Bai, Rui, 2021. "Oil prices and economic policy uncertainty: Evidence from global, oil importers, and exporters’ perspective," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    8. Gong, Xu & Chen, Liqiang & Lin, Boqiang, 2020. "Analyzing dynamic impacts of different oil shocks on oil price," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    9. Eraslan, Sercan & Schröder, Maximilian, 2019. "Nowcasting GDP with a large factor model space," Discussion Papers 41/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    10. Yang, Cai & Zhang, Hongwei & Qin, Yun & Niu, Zibo, 2024. "Partisan conflict, trade policy uncertainty, and the energy market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    11. Anna Gainetdinova & Kazi Sohag, 2025. "The dynamic response of Russian exchange rate to precious metals and minerals prices," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 38(1), pages 59-75, March.
    12. Anttila, Juho, 2018. "Measuring the effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policy in the euro area," Research Discussion Papers 12/2018, Bank of Finland.
    13. Cross, Jamie & Nguyen, Bao H., 2017. "The relationship between global oil price shocks and China's output: A time-varying analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 79-91.
    14. María Dolores Gadea & Ana Gómez-Loscos & Antonio Montañés, 2016. "Oil Price and Economic Growth: A Long Story?," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-28, October.
    15. Haque, Qazi & Magnusson, Leandro M., 2021. "Uncertainty shocks and inflation dynamics in the U.S," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    16. Bariş Gök & Abdurrahman Nazif Çatik, 2016. "Is There Any Time-Varying Relationship between Fiscal and Trade Deficits in Turkey?," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2016(5), pages 607-616.
    17. Nakajima Jouchi, 2011. "Monetary Policy Transmission under Zero Interest Rates: An Extended Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression Approach," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-24, October.
    18. Amine Ben Amar, 2022. "On the role of Islamic banks in the monetary policy transmission in Saudi Arabia," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 12(1), pages 55-94, March.
    19. Boubekeur Baba & Güven Sevil, 2021. "Bayesian analysis of time-varying interactions between stock returns and foreign equity flows," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-25, December.
    20. Hiroyuki Ijiri & Yoichi Matsubayashi, 2016. "Quantitative Easing Policy, Exchange Rates and Business Activity by Industry in Japan from 2001-2006," Discussion Papers 1611, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
    • C36 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:961. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Clorith Angélica Bahos Olivera (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/brcgvco.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.