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The nexus among geopolitical risk, metal prices, and global supply chain pressure: Evidence from the TVP-SV-VAR approach

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  • Jia, Yiqing
  • Liu, Yang
  • Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad

Abstract

The global supply chain faces dual challenges from geopolitical risks and metal price shocks, revealing that their time-varying relationship has become a core issue of national security and corporate competition. By applying the TVP-SV-VAR approach, this study explores the time-varying effects of geopolitical risk, metal prices, and global supply chain pressure from 1998 to 2023. The key findings are as following: (1) Global crises have a more significant impact on supply chain pressure than regional crises do; (2) Geopolitical risk has a more obvious impact on metal prices and global supply chain pressure, with varying degrees of "positive feedback loop" among them, exacerbating economic uncertainty; (3) The COVID-19 crisis, as a unique event over an indeterminate period, has led to directional changes in the impact among the three factors. This study offers crucial guidance to investors, manufacturers, and policymakers in safeguarding the security of supply chains amid complex geopolitical risks and stochastic fluctuations in metal prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Jia, Yiqing & Liu, Yang & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad, 2025. "The nexus among geopolitical risk, metal prices, and global supply chain pressure: Evidence from the TVP-SV-VAR approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 1776-1789.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:85:y:2025:i:c:p:1776-1789
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2025.02.003
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    Keywords

    Geopolitical uncertainty; Metal prices; Global supply chain pressure; TVP-SV-VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • Q34 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts

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