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The contagion of extreme risks between fossil and green energy markets: evidence from China

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  • Xiaohang Ren
  • Ya Xiao
  • Feng He
  • Giray Gozgor

Abstract

This paper combines the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity-Extreme Value Theory-Value at Risk (GARCH-EVT-VaR) method in conjunction with the Time-Varying Parameter Diebold-Yilmaz (TVP-VAR-DY) model to investigate the contagion of extreme risks between fossil and green energy markets in China. Specifically, the study concentrates on coal, crude oil, and natural gas markets as representative sectors for fossil energy, while green bonds, investments, green power, and associated new energy markets are chosen as representatives for the green energy sector. Our analysis reveals that extreme events can rapidly propagate risks between fossil and green energy markets, particularly during significant shifts in the external environment. Notably, green energy markets exhibit greater susceptibility to severe risks compared to their fossil energy counterparts, indicative of their instability and immaturity. Moreover, the analysis highlights the green bond market's heightened sensitivity to extreme risks, with green investments playing a pivotal role in propagating such risks throughout the system. These insights underscore the intricate dynamics of risk contagion between fossil and green energy markets, emphasizing the need for comprehensive risk management strategies in both sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiaohang Ren & Ya Xiao & Feng He & Giray Gozgor, 2024. "The contagion of extreme risks between fossil and green energy markets: evidence from China," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(5), pages 627-642, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:24:y:2024:i:5:p:627-642
    DOI: 10.1080/14697688.2024.2339374
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    13. Tao, Lizhu & Jiang, Wenting & Ren, Xiaohang, 2024. "Analyzing the green bond index: A novel quantile-based high-dimensional approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PB).
    14. Qi, Shaozhou & Pang, Lidong & Li, Xinqiang & Huang, Lin, 2025. "The dynamic connectedness in the “carbon-energy-green finance” system: The role of climate policy uncertainty and artificial intelligence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    15. Ren, Xiaohang & Fu, Chenjia & Jin, Chenglu & Li, Yuyi, 2024. "Dynamic causality between global supply chain pressures and China's resource industries: A time-varying Granger analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PA).
    16. Ren, Xiaohang & He, Yue & Liu, Chuanwang & Tao, Lizhu, 2025. "Extreme risk spillovers between SC, WTI and Brent crude oil futures-Evidence from time-varying Granger causality test," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 320(C).
    17. Wang, Jikai & Qiao, Gaoxiu, 2025. "Extreme events and quantile time-frequency volatility connectedness across crude oil, green bonds and low-carbon equity markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(PA).
    18. Li Li & Hui Yong & Zhenhua Zhang, 2025. "The impact of two-way foreign direct investment on industrial green development: perspective of international cooperation on production capacity in China," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 1-25, April.
    19. Li, Cong & Zhang, Yue & Liu, Xihua & Sun, Jiawen, 2025. "Does artificial intelligence promote green technology innovation in the energy industry?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    20. Lau, Chi Keung & Padhan, Hemachandra & Kumar Das, Amit & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Gozgor, Giray & Jain, Preksha, 2025. "The role of green bonds on industrial sustainability for achieving carbon neutrality: Evidence from the artificial neural network method," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB).
    21. Liu, Weiyong & Liu, Weiwen, 2025. "Green financial instruments: Economic, technological, and legal cycles in the development of the energy transition period," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    22. Jia, Yiqing & Liu, Yang & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad, 2025. "The nexus among geopolitical risk, metal prices, and global supply chain pressure: Evidence from the TVP-SV-VAR approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 1776-1789.

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