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The contagion of extreme risks between fossil and green energy markets: evidence from China

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  • Xiaohang Ren
  • Ya Xiao
  • Feng He
  • Giray Gozgor

Abstract

This paper combines the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity-Extreme Value Theory-Value at Risk (GARCH-EVT-VaR) method in conjunction with the Time-Varying Parameter Diebold-Yilmaz (TVP-VAR-DY) model to investigate the contagion of extreme risks between fossil and green energy markets in China. Specifically, the study concentrates on coal, crude oil, and natural gas markets as representative sectors for fossil energy, while green bonds, investments, green power, and associated new energy markets are chosen as representatives for the green energy sector. Our analysis reveals that extreme events can rapidly propagate risks between fossil and green energy markets, particularly during significant shifts in the external environment. Notably, green energy markets exhibit greater susceptibility to severe risks compared to their fossil energy counterparts, indicative of their instability and immaturity. Moreover, the analysis highlights the green bond market's heightened sensitivity to extreme risks, with green investments playing a pivotal role in propagating such risks throughout the system. These insights underscore the intricate dynamics of risk contagion between fossil and green energy markets, emphasizing the need for comprehensive risk management strategies in both sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiaohang Ren & Ya Xiao & Feng He & Giray Gozgor, 2024. "The contagion of extreme risks between fossil and green energy markets: evidence from China," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(5), pages 627-642, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:24:y:2024:i:5:p:627-642
    DOI: 10.1080/14697688.2024.2339374
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    Cited by:

    1. Liu, Yike & Xu, Zihan & Xing, Xiaoyun & Zhu, Yuxuan, 2024. "Can Chinese investors manage climate risk domestically and globally?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(PB).
    2. Lin, Tsung-Xian & Li, Ling & Padhan, Hemachandra & Pruseth, Sujit Kumar & Patel, Gupteswar & Haouas, Ilham, 2024. "The impact of green finance funds on industrial productivity cycles: Evidence from developing economies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    3. Ren, Xiaohang & Fu, Chenjia & Jin, Chenglu & Li, Yuyi, 2024. "Dynamic causality between global supply chain pressures and China's resource industries: A time-varying Granger analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PA).
    4. Wen, Bohui & Xu, Jiaxiang & Zhang, Li & Hao, Jing & Zhang, Zhongyi, 2024. "Spatial correlation of local government implicit debt tail risks in China and its spillover effects on the banking system," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA).
    5. Foglia, Matteo & Plakandaras, Vasilios & Gupta, Rangan & Ji, Qiang, 2025. "Long-span multi-layer spillovers between moments of advanced equity markets: The role of climate risks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    6. Liu, Hong & Zhu, Yulin & Cui, Na & Zheng, Yan, 2024. "The impact of global uncertainties on the spillover among the European carbon market, the Chinese oil futures market, and the international oil futures market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(PB).
    7. Pei-Fen, Chen & Mei-Ping, Chen & Min-Syu, Lin & Chingnun, Lee, 2025. "Cross-border transmission effect of China's monetary policy on the exchange rate of Asia-Pacific economies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    8. Fu, Tong & Qiu, Zhaoxuan & Yang, Xiangyang & Li, Zijun, 2024. "The impact of artificial intelligence on green technology cycles in China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    9. Liu, Zhenhua & Wang, Yushu & Yuan, Xinting & Ding, Zhihua & Ji, Qiang, 2025. "Geopolitical risk and vulnerability of energy markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    10. Ren, Xiaohang & Fu, Chenjia & Jin, Yi, 2025. "Climate risk perception and oil financialization in China: Evidence from a time-varying Granger model," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    11. Zheng, Hairong & Wang, Sikai & Zhang, Tingting, 2025. "Dynamic risk spillovers between green bonds and energy markets: New evidence from the GARCH-MIDAS-D-Copula-CoVaR approach considering uncertainties," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    12. Tao, Lizhu & Jiang, Wenting & Ren, Xiaohang, 2024. "Analyzing the green bond index: A novel quantile-based high-dimensional approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PB).
    13. Li Li & Hui Yong & Zhenhua Zhang, 2025. "The impact of two-way foreign direct investment on industrial green development: perspective of international cooperation on production capacity in China," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 1-25, April.
    14. Lau, Chi Keung & Padhan, Hemachandra & Kumar Das, Amit & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Gozgor, Giray & Jain, Preksha, 2025. "The role of green bonds on industrial sustainability for achieving carbon neutrality: Evidence from the artificial neural network method," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB).

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