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Climate risk perception and oil financialization in China: Evidence from a time-varying Granger model

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  • Ren, Xiaohang
  • Fu, Chenjia
  • Jin, Yi

Abstract

Financialization has introduced a new dimension to the oil market by incorporating various financial instruments and market participants. This study thus firstly measures the oil financialization by using daily data on Shanghai crude oil futures and Shanghai composite index. The results identify a lower level of oil financialization in China, implying that the oil market is independent on the stock market. Moreover, the exogenous events volatile the degree of oil financialization. We then estimate the impact of climate risk perception on oil financialization using a time-varying Granger model. Novel evidence finds negative and significant time-varying coefficients of climate risk perception on oil financialization, indicating that the effect of climate risk perception is non-constant over time. The empirical results reinforce the implications of the bounded rationality decision and signal theory.

Suggested Citation

  • Ren, Xiaohang & Fu, Chenjia & Jin, Yi, 2025. "Climate risk perception and oil financialization in China: Evidence from a time-varying Granger model," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:74:y:2025:i:c:s0275531924004550
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2024.102662
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    Keywords

    Climate risk perception; Oil financialization; Shanghai crude oil futures; Time-varying Granger model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

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