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Dynamic causality between global supply chain pressures and China's resource industries: A time-varying Granger analysis

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Listed:
  • Ren, Xiaohang
  • Fu, Chenjia
  • Jin, Chenglu
  • Li, Yuyi

Abstract

In the era of advancing globalization and intricate global supply chains, this research utilizes the time-varying Granger causality method to delve into the comovements between supply chain pressures and China's pivotal resource industries, namely steel, coal, petroleum, and non-ferrous metals. Our results indicate that dynamic bidirectional causality is evident between the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) and all examined industries. In particular, the causality predominantly flows from the GSCPI to China's resource industries, while the influence of China's resource industries on the GSCPI is more temporary. This study not only enriches the understanding of global supply chain dynamics but also provides valuable insights for policymakers to manage essential supply chains and address sustainability challenges.

Suggested Citation

  • Ren, Xiaohang & Fu, Chenjia & Jin, Chenglu & Li, Yuyi, 2024. "Dynamic causality between global supply chain pressures and China's resource industries: A time-varying Granger analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PA).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:95:y:2024:i:pa:s1057521924003090
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2024.103377
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global supply chain pressures; China resources industry; Time-varying Granger; Bidirectional causal relationship;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F60 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - General
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

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