Interconnectedness among supply chain disruptions, energy crisis, and oil market volatility on economic resilience

Volatility in global energy markets, disruption of production and distribution networks, and the unpredictability of oil markets have had a major impact on overall economic stability, highlighting the need to review their complex interrelationships thoroughly. In this spirit, this study uses monthly data from 1998 to 2023 to investigate the causal impact of energy uncertainty, global supply chain pressures, and oil supply and demand shocks on economic stability. By using the rolling window approach, we discovered time-varying causality. Our findings reveal the causal relationship between energy uncertainty, global supply chain pressures, and economic growth, highlighting their negative impacts. In addition, the study identified the negative causal relationship between oil demand and supply shocks on economic stability, with the impact of oil supply shocks being more pronounced. Further, error prediction variance decomposition and impulse response analysis provide additional evidence for these causal relationships. Given these findings, the study advocates establishing a more resilient supply chain structure and the energy sector to enhance the sustainability of the global economy.