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The aggregate effects of global and local supply chain disruptions: 2020–2022

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  • Alessandria, George
  • Khan, Shafaat Yar
  • Khederlarian, Armen
  • Mix, Carter
  • Ruhl, Kim J.

Abstract

We study the aggregate effects of supply-chain disruptions in the post-pandemic period in a heterogeneous-firm, general equilibrium model with input-output linkages and a rich set of supply chain frictions: uncertain shipping delays, fixed order costs, and storage costs. Firms optimally hold inventories that depend on the source of supply, domestic or imported. Increases in shipping times are contractionary, raise prices, and increase stockouts, particularly for goods intensive in delayed inputs. These effects are larger when inventories are already at low levels. We fit the model to the U.S. and global economies from 2020 to 2022 and estimate large aggregate effects of supply disruptions. Our model predicts that the boost in output from reducing delays will be smaller than the contraction from the waning effects of stimulus.

Suggested Citation

  • Alessandria, George & Khan, Shafaat Yar & Khederlarian, Armen & Mix, Carter & Ruhl, Kim J., 2023. "The aggregate effects of global and local supply chain disruptions: 2020–2022," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:146:y:2023:i:c:s0022199623000740
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2023.103788
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    Cited by:

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    3. Daeyeol Chang & Niyeyesh Meimandi Nejad & Mansoureh Jeihani & Mansha Swami, 2025. "Beyond the Detour: Modeling Traffic System Shocks After the Francis Scott Key Bridge Failure," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(15), pages 1-17, July.
    4. Pablo Cuba-Borda & Jean-Paul L'Huillier, 2025. "Inflation is a Supply Phenomenon," Working Papers 137, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
    5. Han, Kefei & Kong, Manyu & Xu, Qiuhua & Zhou, Jiayi, 2026. "Exchange rate contagion and international trade: Insights from the TENET method," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    6. Hongyong ZHANG & Thi Thanh Ha DOAN, 2023. "Global Sourcing and Firm Inventory during the Pandemic," Discussion papers 23018, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    7. Joaquín Blaum & Federico Esposito & Sebastian Heise, 2025. "Input Sourcing Under Supply Chain Risk: Evidence from U.S. Manufacturing Firms," Staff Reports 1141, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    8. Ernest Liu & Vladimir Smirnyagin & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2024. "Supply Chain Disruptions and Supplier Capital in U.S. Firms," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2402, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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    11. Alexandr Kopytov & Bineet Mishra & Kristoffer Nimark & Mathieu Taschereau‐Dumouchel, 2024. "Endogenous Production Networks Under Supply Chain Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 92(5), pages 1621-1659, September.
    12. Mishra, Abhinay & Kundu, Tanmoy & Kapoor, Rohit & Goh, Mark, 2025. "Blockchain adoption in cross-border cold supply chains: Cost, Efficiency and Trust," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    13. Georgieva, Vanya & Guerov, Gueorgui & Blagoeva, Nadezhda, . "Impact of economic and environmental factors on agricultural product pricing in the EU," Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, vol. 10(4).
    14. Garcia-Revelo, José & Levieuge, Grégory & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2025. "Revisiting 15 years of unusual transatlantic monetary policies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    15. Ulate, Mauricio & Vasquez, Jose P. & Zarate, Roman D., 2025. "Labor market effects of global supply chain disruptions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    16. Xiwen Bai & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Yiliang Li & Francesco Zanetti, 2024. "The Causal Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions on Macroeconomic Outcomes: Evidence and Theory," Economics Series Working Papers 1033, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    17. Acharya, Viral & Crosignani, Matteo & Eisert, Tim & Eufinger, Christian, 2023. "How do supply shocks to inflation generalize? Evidence from the pandemic era in Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 18530, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Edouard Schaal & Mathieu Taschereau-Dumouchel, 2025. "Echoes and delays: Time-to-build in production networks," Economics Working Papers 1901, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    19. Luo, Changyuan & Wang, Ning, 2025. "U.S.-China trade frictions and supply chain reconstruction: Perspective from indirect links," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    20. Oscar Perello, 2025. "Trade Intermediation and Resilience in Global Sourcing," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Docweb) 2503, CEPREMAP.
    21. Adeel Riaz & Assad Ullah & Bashir Muhammad, 2025. "The impact of global supply chain pressure on the stock market: A sectoral view," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    22. Alejandro G. Graziano & Yuan Tian & Alejandro Graziano, 2024. "Unpacking Global Shocks," CESifo Working Paper Series 11322, CESifo.
    23. Mawuli Segnon & Bjorn Schulte-Tillmann & Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta, 2025. "Deglobalization and Foreign Exchange Volatility: The Role of Supply Chain Pressures," Working Papers 202506, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

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    JEL classification:

    • F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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