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Financial Shocks,Supply-chain Relationships and the Great Trade Collapse

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  • Alok Johri
  • Terry Yip

Abstract

The collapse in trade relative to GDP during 2008-09 was unusually large historically and puzzling relative to the predictions of canonical two-country models.In a calibrated dynamic general equilibrium two-country model where firms must build supply chain relationship in order to sell their product, we show that a tightening of credit can cause a sizable fall in the trade-GDP ratio (44 percent of the observed value) while productivity shocks cannot. The key mechanism underlying the sharper fall in trade relative to GDP involves an endogenous reallocation of scarce resources from international to domestic supply-chains, that are acquired and maintained at lower cost.

Suggested Citation

  • Alok Johri & Terry Yip, 2017. "Financial Shocks,Supply-chain Relationships and the Great Trade Collapse," Department of Economics Working Papers 2017-11, McMaster University.
  • Handle: RePEc:mcm:deptwp:2017-11
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    File URL: http://socserv.mcmaster.ca/econ/rsrch/papers/archive/McMasterEconWP2017-11.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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