IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/30849.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Aggregate Effects of Global and Local Supply Chain Disruptions: 2020–2022

Author

Listed:
  • George A. Alessandria
  • Shafaat Y. Khan
  • Armen Khederlarian
  • Carter B. Mix
  • Kim J. Ruhl

Abstract

We study the aggregate effects of supply-chain disruptions in the post-pandemic period in a heterogeneous-firm, general equilibrium model with input-output linkages and a rich set of supply chain frictions: uncertain shipping delays, fixed order costs, and storage costs. Firms optimally hold inventories that depend on the source of supply, domestic or imported. Increases in shipping times are contractionary, raise prices, and increase stockouts, particularly for goods intensive in delayed inputs. These effects are larger when inventories are already at low levels. We fit the model to the U.S. and global economies from 2020–2022 and estimate large aggregate effects of supply disruptions. Our model predicts that the boost in output from reducing delays will be smaller than the contraction from the waning effects of stimulus.

Suggested Citation

  • George A. Alessandria & Shafaat Y. Khan & Armen Khederlarian & Carter B. Mix & Kim J. Ruhl, 2023. "The Aggregate Effects of Global and Local Supply Chain Disruptions: 2020–2022," NBER Working Papers 30849, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30849
    Note: EFG IFM ITI
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w30849.pdf
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text is generally limited to series subscribers, however if the top level domain of the client browser is in a developing country or transition economy free access is provided. More information about subscriptions and free access is available at http://www.nber.org/wwphelp.html. Free access is also available to older working papers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xiwen Bai & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Yiliang Li & Francesco Zanetti, 2024. "The Causal Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions on Macroeconomic Outcomes: Evidence and Theory," Economics Series Working Papers 1033, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    2. Alejandro G. Graziano & Yuan Tian, 2023. "Trade Disruptions Along the Global Supply Chain," Working Papers 243, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    3. Viral V. Acharya & Matteo Crosignani & Tim Eisert & Christian Eufinger, 2023. "How Do Supply Shocks to Inflation Generalize? Evidence from the Pandemic Era in Europe," NBER Working Papers 31790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. ZHANG Hongyong & DOAN Thi Thanh Ha, 2023. "Global Sourcing and Firm Inventory during the Pandemic," Discussion papers 23018, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30849. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.