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How do supply shocks to inflation generalize? Evidence from the pandemic era in Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Acharya, Viral
  • Crosignani, Matteo
  • Eisert, Tim
  • Eufinger, Christian

Abstract

We document how the interaction of supply-chain pressures, heightened household inflation expectations, and firm pricing power contributed to the pandemic-era surge in consumer price inflation in the euro area. Initially, supply-chain pressures increased inflation through a cost-push channel and raised inflation expectations. Subsequently, the cost-push channel intensified as firms with high pricing power increased product markups in sectors witnessing high demand. Eventually, even though supply-chain pressures eased, these firms were able to further increase markups due to the stickiness of inflation expectations. The resulting persistent impact on inflation suggests supply-side impulses can generalize into broad-based inflation via an interaction of household expectations and firm pricing power.

Suggested Citation

  • Acharya, Viral & Crosignani, Matteo & Eisert, Tim & Eufinger, Christian, 2023. "How do supply shocks to inflation generalize? Evidence from the pandemic era in Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 18530, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:18530
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    2. Xiwen Bai & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Yiliang Li & Francesco Zanetti, 2024. "The Causal Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions on Macroeconomic Outcomes: Evidence and Theory," Economics Series Working Papers 1033, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    3. Koppenberg, Maximilian & Wimmer, Stefan & Hirsch, Stefan, 2025. "Has corporate greed driven inflation in the European Union? An analysis of the food and beverage industry," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    4. Wang, Haibo, 2025. "Assessing dynamic connectedness in global supply chain infrastructure portfolios: The impact of risk factors and extreme events," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    5. Michalis Nikiforos & Simon Grothe & Jan David Weber, 2024. "Markups, profit shares, and cost-push-profit-led inflation," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 33(2), pages 342-362.
    6. Jeworrek, Sabrina & Tonzer, Lena, 2024. "Inflation concerns and green product consumption: Evidence from a nationwide survey and a framed field experiment," IWH Discussion Papers 10/2024, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    7. Weber, Isabella M. & Wasner, Evan & Lang, Markus & Braun, Benjamin & van ’t Klooster, Jens, 2025. "Implicit coordination in sellers’ inflation: How cost shocks facilitate price hikes," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 690-712.
    8. Weber, Isabella & Wasner, Evan & Lang, Markus & Braun, Benjamin & Klooster, Jens van’t, 2025. "Implicit coordination in sellers’ inflation: how cost shocks facilitate price hikes," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 128231, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms

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