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Efectos previstos del cambio climático en la cuenta corriente de Colombia

Author

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  • Agudelo-Rivera, Camila
  • Granger-Castaño, Clark
  • Sánchez-Jabba, Andrés

Abstract

En este estudio se examinan los efectos previstos del cambio climático en la cuenta corriente de Colombia. Para ello, se realiza una previsión del saldo de la cuenta corriente hasta 2050 en diferentes escenarios climáticos a fin de determinar si el impacto de los riesgos relacionados podría afectar la cuenta corriente del país a largo plazo. Los resultados indican que, si en lugar de mantener las políticas climáticas actuales, se alcanzara el cero neto en emisiones para 2050, el déficit en cuenta corriente podría ampliarse el equivalente al 4,6% del PIB. Si la transición se retrasara, el costo equivaldría al 2,6% del PIB. Ese resultado puede atribuirse a la caída permanente de los precios del petróleo y la expansión de la deuda pública que tendrían lugar debido a la disminución de la demanda mundial de combustibles fósiles y al gasto adicional destinado a cumplir los objetivos ambientales.

Suggested Citation

  • Agudelo-Rivera, Camila & Granger-Castaño, Clark & Sánchez-Jabba, Andrés, 2024. "Efectos previstos del cambio climático en la cuenta corriente de Colombia," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecr:col070:80507
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