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Unemployment Fluctuations and Nominal GDP Targeting

Author

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  • Billi, Roberto

    (Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

Abstract

I evaluate the welfare performance of a target for the level of nominal GDP in a New Keynesian model with unemployment, accounting for a zero lower bound (ZLB) constraint on the nominal interest rate. Nominal GDP targeting is compared to employment targeting, a conventional Taylor rule, and the optimal monetary policy with commitment. I find that employment targeting is optimal when supply shocks are the source of fluctuations; however, facing demand shocks and the ZLB constraint, nominal GDP targeting can outperform substantially employment targeting.

Suggested Citation

  • Billi, Roberto, 2020. "Unemployment Fluctuations and Nominal GDP Targeting," Working Paper Series 385, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0385
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jordi Galí & Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2012. "Unemployment in an Estimated New Keynesian Model," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(1), pages 329-360.
    2. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2010. "Monetary Policy and Financial Markets at the Effective Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 229-242, September.
    3. Michael Woodford, 2012. "Methods of policy accommodation at the interest-rate lower bound," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 185-288.
    4. Garín, Julio & Lester, Robert & Sims, Eric, 2016. "On the desirability of nominal GDP targeting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 21-44.
    5. Erceg, Christopher J. & Henderson, Dale W. & Levin, Andrew T., 2000. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-313, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Joaquín Bernal-Ramírez & Jair Ojeda-Joya & Camila Agudelo-Rivera & Felipe Clavijo-Ramírez & Carolina Durana-Ángel & Clark Granger-Castaño & Daniel Osorio-Rodríguez & Daniel Parra-Amado & José Pulido &, 2022. "Impacto macroeconómico del cambio climático en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, issue 102, pages 1-62, July.
    2. Roberto M. Billi & Ulf Söderström & Carl E. Walsh, 2023. "The Role of Money in Monetary Policy at the Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(4), pages 681-716, June.
    3. Behailu Shiferaw Benti, 2021. "Was the Interest Rate Policy of the ECB too Loose? Insight from a Simple Taylor Rule," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 9(1), pages 19-28.
    4. Chen, Haixia & Mai Le, Vo Phuong & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick, 2025. "UK monetary policy in an estimated DSGE model with state-dependent price and wage contracts," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    5. Billi, Roberto M., 2022. "Inflation Targeting or Fiscal Activism?," Working Paper Series 412, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    6. Sara Boni & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2022. "A Structural Analysis of Unemployment-Generating Supply Shocks with an Application to the US Pharmaceutical Industry," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS94, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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