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The Effects of Climate Change on Labor and Capital Reallocation

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  • Christoph Albert
  • Paula Bustos
  • Jacopo Ponticelli

Abstract

Climate change is expected to reduce agricultural productivity in developing countries. Classic international trade and geography models predict that the optimal adaptation response is a reallocation of capital and labor from agriculture towards sectors and regions gaining comparative advantage. In this paper, we provide evidence on the effects of recent changes in climate in Brazil to understand to what extent factor market frictions constrain this reallocation process. We document that persistent increases in dryness do not generate capital reallocation but a sharp reduction in credit to all sectors in both drying areas and financially integrated regions. In addition, dryness generates a large reduction in agricultural employment. Workers staying in drying regions reallocate towards manufacturing but climate migrants are allocated to small firms outside of manufacturing in destination regions. The evidence suggests that frictions in the interbank market and spatial labor market frictions constrain the reallocation process from agriculture to manufacturing.

Suggested Citation

  • Christoph Albert & Paula Bustos & Jacopo Ponticelli, 2021. "The Effects of Climate Change on Labor and Capital Reallocation," NBER Working Papers 28995, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28995
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    Cited by:

    1. Suchita Srinivasan, 2023. "Social Policies and Adaptation to Extreme Weather: Evidence from South Africa," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 23/381, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    2. Afridi, Farzana & Mahajan, Kanika & Sangwan, Nikita, 2022. "The gendered effects of droughts: Production shocks and labor response in agriculture," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    3. Federico Boffa & Francisco Cavalcanti & Christian Fons‐Rosen & Amedeo Piolatto, 2024. "Drought‐Reliefs and Partisanship," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 86(2), pages 187-208, April.
    4. Cascarano, Michele & Natoli, Filippo & Petrella, Andrea, 2022. "Entry, exit and market structure in a changing climate," MPRA Paper 112868, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Jacopo Ponticelli & Qiping Xu & Stefan Zeume, 2023. "Temperature and Local Industry Concentration," Working Papers 23-51, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    6. Acevedo, Ivonne & Castellani, Francesca & Lopez de la Cerda, Carlos & Lotti, Giulia & Székely, Miguel, 2023. "Natural Disasters and Labor Market Outcomes in Mexico," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 13131, Inter-American Development Bank.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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