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Effects of emigration on labor markets in migrant origin areas: Evidence from internal migration in Indonesia

Author

Listed:
  • Buller, David H.
  • Kleemans, Marieke

Abstract

We study the effects of internal migration in Indonesia on labor market outcomes of non-migrants in origin areas. To address endogeneity of the decision to migrate, we instrument emigration rates with shift-share labor demand shocks in destination areas interacted with historical migration patterns. Using detailed longitudinal data from over 36,000 individuals, whom we observe over a 27-year period, we find that a one percentage point increase in the emigration rate leads to a 3.42% increase in hourly income for those who stay in origin areas. Given the high degree of informality in Indonesia, we then look separately at effects for formal- and informal-sector workers. In line with a dual-sector labor market model, we find that employment effects are concentrated in the formal sector and income effects are most pronounced in the informal sector. Even though emigrants tend to be higher-educated, lower-educated non-migrants benefit the most as they switch to formal sector work and benefit from higher earnings in the informal sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Buller, David H. & Kleemans, Marieke, 2026. "Effects of emigration on labor markets in migrant origin areas: Evidence from internal migration in Indonesia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:179:y:2026:i:c:s0304387825001749
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103623
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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